With the 2026 World Cup final approaching, an analysis conducted by an Opta supercomputer generated significant interest by pointing to Spain as the team with the highest probability of winning the tournament. The decisive match is scheduled for this Sunday (19th) in New Jersey and will feature the confirmed presence of Donald Trump.
Data provided by the Opta supercomputer indicates that the Spanish national team is the favorite, holding a 56.05% chance of winning the match during regular time. Conversely, Argentina, which is the top South American team and holds three world titles, has a 43.95% probability of securing victory within 90 minutes.
If this projection materializes, Spain would achieve its second world title. Meanwhile, Argentina would aim for its fourth trophy.
The grand final will be held at MetLife Stadium, located in East Rutherford, New Jersey. This stadium, temporarily named New York-New Jersey Stadium, has a capacity to host up to 82,500 spectators. The venue has previously hosted the final and both semi-finals of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup.
Historically, the last encounter between Spain and Argentina took place on March 27, 2018, during a friendly match held at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid, where the Spaniards won 6 to 1.
The final is set to begin on July 19th at 4 PM (Brasília time) and 7 PM (GMT) at MetLife Stadium. Furthermore, for the first time in a World Cup final, there will be an halftime show inspired by the Super Bowl format. Among the anticipated artists are Madonna, Justin Bieber, Shakira, BTS, Burna Boy, Gustavo Dudamel, and the PS22 choir, featuring Coldplay.
The musical performance is expected to last approximately 11 minutes, allowing the break to be extended up to 30 minutes. Before the opening whistle, a closing ceremony will commence 90 minutes prior, featuring Tom Cruise, Robbie Williams, and Nicole Scherzinger. FIFA has also confirmed that the United States President, Donald Trump, will be present to present the trophy to the winner.
After the conclusion of this final, the focus will shift to the 2030 World Cup, which will be hosted in Morocco, Spain, and Portugal. In celebration of the tournament's 100th anniversary, there will also be matches in Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay. Although the final city has not yet been determined, Madrid is cited as the main candidate.
The 2026 World Cup has entered the quarterfinals, and the Opta supercomputer has presented its predictions regarding the favorites for this stage of the tournament. The data analysis specialist used this technology to indicate that France, Spain, England, and Argentina have the highest chances of winning the upcoming matches scheduled from Thursday (9th) to Saturday (11th).
On Thursday, France will play Morocco at 17:00. On Friday (10th), Spain will face Belgium at 16:00. Two matches are scheduled for Saturday: Norway versus England at 18:00 and Argentina versus Switzerland at 22:00.
According to Opta's predictions, the probabilities are as follows: France (72.1%) vs Morocco (27.9%); Spain (70.72%) vs Belgium (29.28%); Norway (38.04%) vs England (61.96%); and Argentina (63.62%) vs Switzerland (36.38%).
To determine the percentage chance for each national team, the analysis was conducted by running approximately ten thousand simulations.
Regarding the determination of the 2026 World Cup champion, Opta considers France the most likely winner. According to the machine's calculations, the team with Kylian Mbappé has a 27.3% chance of lifting the cup in the final. Following them are Spain (21.3%), Argentina (17.2%), and England (15.5%). Among the underdogs, Opta noted Norway (6.6%), Switzerland (3.8%), Morocco (3.7%), and Belgium (3.6%).
Users question the reliability of this machine. However, the system demonstrated high accuracy: it correctly identified six out of the eight teams that advanced to the quarterfinals. Previously, it also correctly predicted the winners of 14 out of 16 matches in the second stage of the 2026 World Cup.
For comparison, Opta previously predicted that PSG had a 56% chance of becoming champion in the Champions League, and this prediction proved correct.
