The global demand for African minerals is evident. However, the key question is whether this demand will sustain the old model of resource extraction or help create a new geography of production, capabilities, and value retention directly in Africa, as noted by Pedro Manuel Moreno.
A significant part of the world is interested in what resources Africa can provide: copper for power grids, cobalt and graphite for batteries, and minerals for data centers, energy systems, and advanced manufacturing. Nevertheless, a more important question is what Africa is capable of building itself.
Between 2022 and 2024, more than half of the world's economies were heavily dependent on primary commodities, with the highest levels of concentration observed among vulnerable economies, including many African countries. Dependence on the export of unprocessed raw materials subjects states to price fluctuations, external shocks, and fiscal pressure. Natural wealth can generate export revenues without ensuring sufficient industrial processing.
Developing manufacturing, services, suppliers, technologies, and skills allows economies to become more resilient and diversified. The central issue is not simply what countries extract, but what volume of value and opportunities they are able to retain. Investment, trade, and production networks are being reconfigured around digital infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, critical minerals, and energy transition technologies.
Strategic sectors accounted for 44% of the cost of 'green field' projects in 2025, compared to 16% in 2020. These sectors determine where future production capacity will be created and who will benefit from the next generation of trade. Although Africa already holds a central place in this economy, centrality in supply does not guarantee centrality in production.
If investments only strengthen extraction without developing local capabilities, the next production map will reproduce the old commodity exchange model: resources are in one place, but production and value are elsewhere. Critical minerals represent the intersection of the old history of commodities and a new opportunity for development, as they underpin the technologies driving energy and digital transitions.
Only the demand for lithium, for example, is projected to grow by more than 350% between 2024 and 2040. However, increased demand alone does not imply development; the crucial factor is where value is created and retained, and who builds industries around it. In 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo supplied 74% of global cobalt production, with processing and refining also highly concentrated. Most of the value is generated after the minerals leave the ground.
Without targeted action, critical minerals could become the next 'commodity trap': mineral-rich countries will supply the next industrial era, while others handle processing, manufacturing, innovation, and capturing greater profits. Adding value is not just moving from extraction to processing; it also includes suppliers, services, skills, infrastructure, and regional markets. Each country must define its competitive advantages and gradually build capacity.
Pedro Manuel Moreno saw this in the case of Madagascar during a recent visit. This country is a major producer of nickel, cobalt, graphite, and ilmenite, yet most of the revenue from these resources is captured outside the country. UNCTAD's work has identified opportunities to link mineral wealth with the processing of food, textiles, chemicals, plastics, and supplier industries, which can create formal jobs. Mineral production can support a broader manufacturing base rather than remaining isolated export activity.
Earlier this year, UNCTAD presented similar assessments for Zambia and Namibia. The analysis identified 412 products in Zambia and 353 products across 23 sectors in Namibia, along with the potential to create thousands of jobs in both countries. These figures transform broad discussions into a practical agenda: added value can be mapped, assessed, planned, and linked to real companies, sectors, and markets.
Africa should not be viewed as a passive supplier of raw materials for the energy transition, AI infrastructure, or advanced manufacturing anywhere else. If the world needs African minerals, partnerships must foster the development of African industries. This is not a call to exit global trade, but a question of the conditions under which trade and investment promote development.
Investments should be judged by what they leave behind: suppliers, skills, infrastructure, jobs, links to domestic and regional firms, and a clearer path from extraction to production. Added value must also be seen as a regional and global agenda, as many African markets are too small to sustain complex industrial ecosystems independently. Partnerships in critical minerals must go beyond mining agreements; they must support technology transfer, processing, manufacturing, standards, infrastructure, and finance, otherwise, they risk only supplying others without changing the development trajectory of producing countries. This is not about isolation or resource nationalism; it is about ensuring that trade and investment contribute to building production capacity where the resources are located. Dependence on raw materials is not destiny, but overcoming it requires building that capacity at home.
At the Standard Bank Africa Unlocked conference held in Cape Town on Friday, a panel discussion took place focusing on how to boost African agricultural production to deepen intra-regional trade and increase exports.
During the 2026 conference in Cape Town, key measures required to unlock the potential of the continent's agricultural sector were discussed. Among these measures highlighted were government support for commercial farming and granting farmers land ownership rights.
Vandile Sichlobo, Chief Economist of the South African Agricultural Business Association, emphasized that a ready product is necessary for exports. He noted that various African countries can learn from the experience of private-sector growth in South African agriculture. Sichlobo considers it vital to expand the rights of farmers and agribusinesses to own or lease land, as this attracts investment. Furthermore, he pointed to the critical importance of infrastructure investment to improve value chains.
According to Sichlobo, productivity gains are possible through the introduction of technological advancements in seeds, genetics, and agrochemicals. He added that trade restrictions and interventions in commodity prices are necessary to ensure policy stability and attract capital. Supporting commercial farming is a key step for progress in African agriculture, as it is essential for developing agro-processing and creating jobs.
Sichlobo acknowledged that South Africa faces several problems, including rising crime rates, municipal inefficiency, deteriorating road conditions, and port difficulties, as well as a slow process of inclusivity. Nevertheless, he stated that in terms of overall national indicators, South Africa offers many lessons for the entire continent. He noted that South Africa actively exports within the continent, and countries like Zambia, Malawi, and Kenya should study South Africa's experience to improve production and agro-processing.
The expert also stressed the need for a marketable product. He warned that without increasing agricultural productivity across the African continent, the same problem as in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) will arise, where one country dominates another. Sichlobo mentioned that South Africa is capable of producing food at a relatively low farm-gate price despite logistical and port challenges, allowing it to offer competitive prices in various markets. He also mentioned the expected El Niño in South Africa and suggested that with more resilient agriculture in East Africa during droughts in South Africa, imports could come from East Africa rather than other parts of the world.
Mohammed Deji, CEO of MeTL Group in Tanzania, noted that Africa's potential has long been discussed. He stated that today, Africa is defined not only by its potential but also by what it is already building. Entrepreneurs across the continent are creating globally competitive businesses, producers are adding value, farmers are feeding populations, and innovators are solving African problems with African solutions.
Deji explained that MeTL Group started as a trading company delivering essential goods. However, as Tanzania and Africa developed, the company realized that trade alone was insufficient to achieve sustainable prosperity based on raw material exports and finished product imports. Therefore, the company expanded its activities into food processing, production of vegetable oils, beverages, textiles, soap, detergents, and consumer goods.
Today, MeTL produces over 50 categories of products, operates in 11 African countries, employs over 40,000 people, and plans to generate over $3 billion (49 billion Rand) in annual revenue by 2026. Adaptability has become one of MeTL's main advantages, allowing it to cope with fluctuations in commodity markets, currency changes, changing regulations, and consumer demand.
