According to the MacroFiscal Bulletin from the Secretariat of Economic Policy, issued by the Ministry of Finance (Finances), recent impacts from oil and other raw material prices continue to exert pressure on consumed values in Brazil.
Inflationary Pressure Factors
The ministerial document points out that food inflation remains the main driver of pressure, fueled by the increase in fresh produce, milk, rice, and beans. Furthermore, the economic team observes the persistence of inflation in both services and industrial goods, even with the expectation of a gradual reduction predicted for the second half of this year.
Climate and Geopolitical Risks
The Ministry of Finance warned that a possible worsening of the El Niño climate phenomenon could pressure food prices this year and represents an additional risk for the 2027 harvest. In a press conference, the Secretary of Economic Policy, Débora Freire, highlighted that 'the main risk is hydrological,' capable of raising electricity costs in the country. Freire clarified that, so far, the Ministry of Finance is not discussing ways to mitigate the effects of El Niño.
Additionally, the effects of the war in the Middle East continue to shape inflation projections, even after a temporary drop in international oil prices during the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The Ministry of Finance noted, however, that the cessation of this truce, after the projection cut-off date, reignited risks to energy costs.
Macroeconomic Analysis and Tariffs
The economic team considers that the impact of the oil shock has already generated indirect consequences on Brazilian inflation, particularly affecting the prices of services and industrial goods through increased production and logistics costs. As inflation control mechanisms, the bulletin mentions maintaining the basic interest rate at a restrictive level, slowing economic activity, and actions aimed at limiting the transfer of fuel price increases to consumers.
Regarding the tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products, the bulletin estimates that their macroeconomic impact will be contained. The tariff measures announced by Washington in June 2026, which are still awaiting approval, include exceptions for several items, which should keep the aggregate effect on the Brazilian economy limited. The Brazilian government implemented measures since the previous year to expand credit, increase liquidity, and diversify markets for the most vulnerable sectors.
Growth Projections and Sectors
The North American market accounted for approximately 11% of Brazilian exports in 2025, corresponding to less than 2% of GDP before the tariff imposition. The economic team's assessment indicates that the diversion of some sales to other locations compensated for a considerable part of these losses. Regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth projection for the Brazilian economy in 2026 was maintained at 2.3%, although there is a forecast of a contraction in activity in the second quarter, following a strong start to the year. This slowdown is mainly attributed to the end of the momentum generated by the record soybean harvest, which boosted the agricultural sector at the beginning of the year. Industry is also expected to reduce its pace, moving from an expansion of 1.2% to 0.8%, reflecting lower vigor in the extractive and construction industries, according to the analysis of the Ministry of Finance's economic team.