The global energy system is facing a problem analogous to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world's oil volume must pass through a single disputed waterway. Since late February, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a sharp reduction in tanker traffic and caused turmoil in global energy markets, resulting in Brent crude oil prices reaching around $82 per barrel this week.
It has been found that the internet possesses a similar structural flaw. A new report prepared by the International Advisory Body on Submarine Cables (IAB), compiled at the initiative of the International Telecommunication Union and the Committee for the Protection of Submarine Cables, warns that bottlenecks in submarine cables are becoming a 'systemic risk.'
According to the report, global internet traffic is 'frequently subject to geographical concentration in a limited number of bottleneck corridors,' which include the Luzon Strait, the Strait of Malacca, and the Red Sea corridor. These dense concentrations amplify the systemic risk: a single natural disaster or geopolitical disruption in these corridors could trigger simultaneous failures of multiple systems.
The figures are seriously alarming. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, is the most concentrated body of water in the world, through which at least 17 cables pass, carrying an estimated 17–20% of global internet traffic, within a channel less than 23 kilometers wide. The Suez Corridor directs approximately 90% of communications between Europe and Asia through a shallow area over 160 kilometers long.
Furthermore, cables serving Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar also cross the Strait of Hormuz. State media linked to Iran have already hinted at the possibility of leveraging this dependency by charging technology giants a 'rental fee' for passing cables through their waters.
Africa felt the bottleneck effect directly. When the damaged cargo ship Rubymar, left after a Houthi missile strike, dragged anchor in the Red Sea in February 2024, it damaged three cables, including the Seacom cable, which provides a significant portion of traffic between South Africa, East Africa, and Europe. Restoration was delayed for months while awaiting permits in Yemeni-controlled waters, which severely impacted Seacom's profits.
The report explains why operators continue to lay cables in the same overloaded corridors: economics. Construction along an existing route, where landing stations and regulatory approvals are present, costs 15–30% less than creating a new route. This 'anchoring' effect continues to direct new systems into those very corridors that operators already know to be vulnerable.
There is also a noticeable gap in the data. The report links over 80% of the 150–200 annual cable failures to accidents—fishing gear and anchoring. It admits, with unusual candor, that 'while IAB recommendations largely focus on accidental damage (fishing and anchoring), they largely avoid explicit discussion of intentional misconduct'—such as interference or sabotage. It also notes the reason for this: 'governments may be reluctant to share even anonymized data if it highlights vulnerabilities in regions critical to their national security,' and the global cable network is fragmenting into 'separate US and Chinese ecosystems, complicating international cooperation in repair and data exchange.'
Nevertheless, suspicions of intentional interference are no longer hypothetical. In the Baltic Sea, a series of incidents has shown how vessels associated with Russia and China have dragged anchors across cables and pipelines: the Balticconnector gas pipeline and telecommunications cables in October 2023; the C-Lion1 and Lithuania-Sweden cables in November 2024; and the Estlink 2 power cable and four telecommunications cables at Christmas 2024, allegedly by the tanker Eagle S. The last repair took over seven months and cost up to 60 million euros (about 1.1 billion rials). In October 2025, the Helsinki District Court dismissed a lawsuit against the vessel's crew on jurisdictional grounds, ruling that under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the cable break was a 'navigation incident' that could only be prosecuted by the flag state or the crew's home countries. This decision exposed how weakly international law protects cables in open water.
Taiwan went further: in July 2025, it jailed Chinese captain Hong Tai 58 for three years for intentionally dragging anchor across the Taiwan-Penghu No. 3 cable—the first such conviction on the island amid what it calls Chinese pressure in the 'gray zone.' Beijing denies involvement, calling the cable damage a 'routine' maritime incident.
In addition to geographical concentration, there is a new threat. The report established that 'changing weather conditions and environmental pressure are becoming important risk factors affecting coastal landing infrastructure, seabed stability, and long-term network planning.' Storm surges destroy cables and undermine coastal infrastructure, while increased river flooding causes underwater landslides capable of simultaneously severing numerous cables. Eastern and Western Africa frequently appear in the report's hotspots, and the Congo River system—where murky currents caused double cable breaks in South Africa in 2020 and 2023—is noted as an area where climate change could make such landslides more likely.
The consequences of inaction are quantified by the report itself. When the eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in January 2022 severed Tonga's sole cable, the country experienced 'near-total digital isolation for 61 days,' incurring damages and losses of about $182 million (3 billion rials), equivalent to 38.7% of its GDP. As reported by TechCentral this week, Africa's buffer against such a scenario is very small: a single repair ship based in Cape Town provides most of the connectivity for sub-Saharan African countries.
The IAB report warns that the internet should not wait for its 'Hormuz moment' before seeking alternative routes, just as the oil market will eventually bypass Hormuz, albeit at a higher cost.
The growing military tension between the United States of America and Iran has begun to affect global energy supply. After the American army conducted attacks on several Iranian facilities for the second consecutive day, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has practically stopped. Since oil and natural gas shipments pass through this sea route for almost half the world, the increased tension in this region has caused serious concern worldwide.
Maritime traffic passing through Hormuz is currently slowed. Most ships are using the northern sea route, which was approved by Iran. Meanwhile, movement along the southern corridor, supported by Oman and the US, has become extremely rare. According to reports, only one supertanker with US approval and one container ship of Iranian origin passed through the strait in recent hours.
According to the analytical firm Kpler, before a temporary agreement was reached between the US and Iran, an average of 34 commercial vessels passed through Hormuz daily over three weeks. By June 24, this number reached 59. However, after the recent military clash, this figure sharply decreased, with fewer than 20 ships passing through the route on most days during the fighting.
According to military and defense expert Alexander Alfiraj Shirsa, quoted in an Al Jazeera report, Iran is prepared to risk a major conflict with the US to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. He considers this waterway its main strategic asset and intends to use it as a lever of pressure in any future negotiations.
At the same time, pressure is being exerted on the US and GCC countries to prevent the Strait of Hormuz from turning into a fully Iran-controlled maritime zone. Experts believe that although the temporary agreement between the US and Iran has not been completely annulled, it has reached a very weak position in the current situation.
Meanwhile, Iran has accused the US of violating ceasefire agreements and the UN Charter. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that US attacks on various facilities, including two railway bridges, are a 'false pretext' for attacks on ships in Hormuz. Iran claims that at least 14 people were killed and many others were injured as a result of the American attacks.
Furthermore, Iran announced missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Explosions have been reported in several areas around Hormuz, including the islands of Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Jask, and Abu Musa. If tensions between the two countries do not decrease soon, it could have a long-term impact on the world's most important oil supply route, directly affecting crude oil prices, gas supplies, shipping costs, and the global economy.
