According to climate models, South Africa expects significant changes in weather conditions as there is a rapid transition from a neutral state to the El Niño phenomenon. This weather pattern is predicted to intensify during the 2026/27 summer season.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that climate models suggest a likely development of El Niño in the coming months. This phenomenon traditionally increases the probability of abnormally high temperatures in many regions of Southern Africa. As the predicted El Niño strengthens, the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events increases.
The WMO community is activating coordination among climate information services and early warning systems to help countries prepare for potential consequences.
Although El Niño may originate thousands of kilometers away in the Pacific Ocean, it has the ability to alter weather conditions worldwide, including in South Africa. Professor François Engelbrecht, Director of the Institute for Global Change at the University of the Witwatersrand, previously warned that climate change is increasing extreme temperatures in Southern Africa. He noted that global warming contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, and El Niño can further raise the probability of an exceptionally hot summer in Southern Africa.
SAWS expects that elevated temperatures will be observed in most regions of the country in the coming months. For residents of South Africa, this could mean warmer days, increased electricity consumption due to the use of air conditioners and fans, and additional strain on water resources if dry conditions persist.
The meteorological service advises the public to remain vigilant regarding heat-related health risks, as well as local flooding. Farmers and disaster management groups are advised to monitor monthly seasonal forecasts as they are updated. SAWS emphasizes that although summer has not yet arrived, seasonal forecasts will continue to be adjusted, so there is no need to cancel summer plans yet.
According to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the rapid development of the El Niño phenomenon is being noted for the period from July to September. This circumstance increases the probability of heatwaves, droughts, and other extreme weather events in many parts of the globe, including the Indian subcontinent.
India is already feeling the effects of El Niño. In June, the country recorded a significant rainfall deficit of 40%, which negatively affected the sowing of almost all Kharif (summer) crops. As a result, the total cultivated area in the country decreased by approximately 23% compared to the same period last year.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is traditionally associated with a weak monsoon and a harsher summer in India. Such events occur every two to seven years and typically last from nine to twelve months.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that El Niño conditions have already begun and are predicted to rapidly intensify into a strong event. She emphasized that this will worsen the chances of drought and heavy rainfall, as well as increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and at sea in many regions of the world.
Although the rainfall deficit in India is gradually decreasing due to the spread of the monsoon across the country and other meteorological factors in July-September, the condition of Kharif crops will depend on both the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the 'monsoon core zone'—the area where agriculture heavily relies on seasonal precipitation.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on June 25, the total cultivated area was 182 lakh hectares, which is 23% less than the 236 lakh hectares the previous year. All major crops—rice, pulses, oilseeds, coarse grains (sorghum and maize), and cotton—showed a smaller planted area this year compared to last year. The largest decrease in area was observed in oilseeds, where the drop amounted to 53%.
