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Raw oil imports into China reached their lowest level in a decade in June, marking a significant decline that has contributed to stabilizing energy prices amid the escalating conflict between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Import Data and Suppliers

According to customs data from China published on Tuesday, the volume of crude oil imports was 29.27 million tons annually, reflecting a 41 percent decrease. This figure is the lowest since October 2016. China is the world's largest oil importer. Last year, the country purchased an average of 11.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Brazil among its main suppliers. For comparison, China's oil import volumes exceed the combined imports of France, the UK, and Germany.

Reasons for Decline and Fuel Substitution

Energy experts explain that China's decision to sharply reduce oil imports is one of the key factors keeping energy prices under control amidst the war between the US and Israel against Iran. China is a major buyer of Iranian and Saudi Arabian oil exports, and Beijing accumulated significant crude oil reserves before the war began. Experts note that the reduction in imports is due to a number of reasons, including a serious slowdown in China's economic growth. However, there are signs that China has replaced crude oil with coal: according to customs data, imports of the latter rose by 30 percent, reaching a five-month high.

Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz

Despite China providing weapons and satellite technology to Iran in the initial days of US attacks, the slowdown in Chinese crude oil imports helps restrain global energy prices while the US and Iran intensify their confrontation. The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to extend the spring truce and begin negotiations regarding the nuclear program and governance of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange for ceasing attacks and allowing ships to pass through Hormuz without paying duties, Iran was granted a temporary waiver of sanctions. Nevertheless, clashes between the parties have intensified in recent weeks. Iran attacked ships belonging to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE passing through the Strait of Hormuz in Omani territorial waters. Tehran claims that these ships did not coordinate passage with it, as required by the MoU. Furthermore, the agreement does not oblige ships to pass through Iranian territorial waters. The US provided escort for ships in this waterway and resumed strikes against Iran. On Tuesday, the US once again imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and shipping.

Impact on Prices and Inflation

Oil prices rose from $69 per barrel to $79 amid the fighting, but even this level is considered moderate. The overall limited rise in oil prices prevents the war from spreading to the global economy. This may give President Donald Trump time to continue attacks while simultaneously depriving Iran of an important lever of pressure. Just last month, when the ink on the MoU had barely dried, inflation in the US decreased, aided by falling gasoline prices in America. Before the US and Israeli attacks on Iran in February, gasoline prices were around $3 per gallon. Today, they fluctuate around $3.87 per gallon on average. This still represents a 30 percent increase, but in June, gasoline prices fell by 10 percent, according to the US inflation report released this week.

Private insurance companies HDFC Life Insurance and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance reported double-digit profit growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026-27 (April-June quarter). This growth was driven by an increase in premium receipts, growth in investment income, and sustained business development.

Company Financial Performance

HDFC Life increased its net profit by 11.9% year-on-year, reaching 611 crore rupees. Meanwhile, ICICI Pru recorded a stronger profit growth of 27.8% year-on-year, amounting to 386.2 crore rupees.

HDFC Life's investment income grew by 14.1% year-on-year, reaching 16,653 crore rupees for the quarter. ICICI Pru's investment income increased by 11.1% year-on-year, totaling 18,500 crore rupees. Premium income also remained high: HDFC Life's net premium income grew by 14.4% year-on-year to 16,548 crore rupees, while ICICI Pru's grew by 14.7% to 9,749 crore rupees.

Business Metrics and Expenses

HDFC Life's Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) increased by 9% year-on-year to 3,515 crore rupees. The Value of New Business (VNB) grew by 8.7% to 879 crore rupees from 809 crore rupees the previous year, although the VNB margin slightly decreased to 25% from 25.1%. The company's operating expenses rose by 18.8% year-on-year, reaching 3,871 crore rupees, with the rise in commission expenses by 20% to 2,101 crore rupees being the main factor.

HDFC Life's solvency ratio decreased to 185% as of June 30, from 192% the previous year. As for ICICI Pru, its APE grew by 14.6% year-on-year to 2,136 crore rupees. The company's VNB increased by 25% to 571 crore rupees compared to 457 crore rupees in the quarter a year ago, and the VNB margin improved to 26.7% from 24.5%. ICICI Pru's expenses rose by 17.9% year-on-year to 2,230 crore rupees, while commission expenses increased by only 3% to 1,014 crore rupees. ICICI Pru's solvency ratio improved to 225.4% as of June 30, compared to 212.3% the previous year.

Diversification of Sales Channels

Both insurance companies continued to diversify their sales channels, reducing dependence on the bancassurance channel. In HDFC Life, the bancassurance channel accounted for 57% of individual APE during the quarter, which is lower than 60% the previous year. Meanwhile, the agency channel contribution increased to 18% from 15%, and direct channels to 10% from 9%. Vibha Padalkar, Managing Director and CEO of HDFC Life Insurance, noted that in Q1 FY27, proprietary channels, including agency and non-bank alliances, grew by 17%, outpacing the industry, while business through the bancassurance channel showed moderate growth, leading to a 7% rise in individual APE. She added that there is an encouraging improvement in the company's share in partner banks, and further normalization is expected in the coming months.

Anup Bagchi, CEO of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, emphasized that protection remains a key focus area, noting strong growth in retail protection business of 60.4% year-on-year in Q1 FY27. This growth was stimulated by the exemption of Goods and Services Tax (GST) for protection products and various initiatives by the company itself. This marks the third consecutive quarter where retail protection growth exceeded 40% following GST reforms.

ICICI Pru's share in the bancassurance channel of total APE decreased to 27% from 30% the previous year. Meanwhile, the contribution of partnership distribution increased to 15% from 13%, and group distribution grew to 23% from 19%. After the announcement of results, ICICI Pru shares rose by 4.1% and closed at 524.8 rupees on BSE, while HDFC Life gained 2.4% and finished at 568.5 rupees.

The European Union has decided to extend the restriction on the price of Russian oil until July 23. This decision was made during a meeting of European Union ambassadors in Brussels, according to European sources.

Consequences of non-extension

If this measure had not been extended, the price cap on Russian oil would have expired today. This would have led to an increase in the barrel's cost from the current $44.10 to almost $60, which would effectively allow Moscow to increase its revenue streams.

Context of the sanctions package

The extension of the oil price restriction was discussed as part of the 21st package of sanctions against Russia, which was presented by the European Commission in June. Initially, it was expected that this package would be approved on Monday at the meeting of European Union foreign ministers.

Problems with adopting the package

However, several disagreements arose among member states regarding this package, hindering its approval. Among the most controversial points were the European Commission's proposal to impose restrictions on Russian fishing, specifically banning the import of cod, or to adopt measures that would effectively block the transit of liquefied natural gas to third countries through the community.

Other provisions of the package

The initial version of the package also provided for a ban on entry into Europe for Russians who participated in the war in Ukraine, as well as the introduction of sanctions against prominent figures such as Patriarch Kirill of Moscow.