Artificial intelligence (AI) is often viewed in extreme terms: either as a threat that will replace workers or as a tool that facilitates the next wave of growth and productivity. However, the actual picture is likely to be more complex. The potential impact in South Africa will probably differ from what is observed in economies like the US, although developments there may offer some clues about what to expect locally.
Global Assessments of AI Impact
Studies by the International Monetary Fund show that about 40% of global employment is somehow affected by AI. In developed countries, this figure rises to approximately 60%. Goldman Sachs predicts that over the next decade, AI will affect around 300 million jobs worldwide.
Shifting Labor Market Structure
Interestingly, we are not currently seeing mass job losses. Instead, AI appears to be transforming how people enter the labor market and advance their careers. The greatest pressure is felt in the service sector and at entry-level positions, where companies may be more cautious about creating new roles than before.
The impact also depends on the composition of the workforce. Positions that are highly administrative, repetitive, routine, and process-based are most at risk. Conversely, higher-level positions seem more protected. These include jobs where experience, judgment, and oversight are important, especially those related to evaluating AI-generated results and determining their accuracy and relevance.
Job Creation and Risks
There is also the argument that while AI may eliminate some jobs, the technology will likely create new ones. Roles such as programmers, engineers, and process developers may benefit from these changes.
In the US, graduate absorption has slowed down as companies have been less active in creating new vacancies than before. A study by IESE Business School showed that the wages of junior employees in companies affected by AI decreased after the launch of ChatGPT. Even for those who find jobs, wage growth has been unfavorable.
Challenges for South Africa
In a country like South Africa, where the economy already faces a significant youth unemployment problem, many graduates are already struggling to find meaningful first opportunities. If AI reduces the need for entry-level positions or slows their creation, it could further complicate the transition from education to work.
This is both a social and a business issue. Many organizations naturally invest in technology to improve margins, but they also need to look beyond short-term efficiency. Succession planning, knowledge transfer, and capacity building remain critical. If businesses stop attracting and developing young talent internally, they risk weakening the very pipeline that will provide future leaders and oversee increasingly complex systems.
Integration of Robotics and AI
The same applies to how AI is beginning to merge with robotics. In manufacturing, the future is not just robotics, but the integration of robotics and AI. This shift may increase the demand for highly skilled technical oversight while reducing the number of routine positions. For a country already grappling with inequality, the issue shifts from jobs displaced by technology to how workers prepare and equip themselves for the roles that technology creates.
For workers, AI technical literacy is important, but human capabilities that are harder to automate—including judgment, relationship building, accountability, and the ability to interpret results in context—are equally vital.
Prospects for Investors
From an investment perspective, it is important to seek out companies that do not focus solely on margin expansion. There is a natural limit to cost savings, whereas growth is less constrained. AI strategies should increasingly be evaluated based on their contribution to revenue growth. The winners will not be the companies that automate the most, but those that use AI for growth while maintaining judgment, accountability, and the talent pipeline that sustains the business over time.
