Spotify removed approximately half a million plays of the track 'Earrings,' performed by artist Malcolm Todd, after identifying signs of artificial streaming. This correction occurred after the streaming platform conducted an investigation that pointed to evidence of manipulation.
Suspicion of Manipulation and Betting
Although cases of using bots to inflate numbers on music services are not new, this incident has a distinct characteristic: the suspicion that the manipulation was connected to the prediction platform Kalshi. There is a possibility that bettors profited from an unlikely success on Spotify.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer the ability to bet on various outcomes, including financial results, political decisions, sports, and entertainment events, such as award winners or most-played song rankings. Trader Caleb Davies raised the suspicion that bettors were using bots to artificially increase the streams of specific songs, aiming for gains in bets, with 'Earrings' topping the charts as a cited example.
It is important to note that there is no evidence of the artist's involvement in this episode, and if manipulation occurred, the choice of the song by bettors may have been random. As noted by The Hollywood Reporter, the song was already in the top 5 of daily streams in the United States in previous weeks, but the Financial Times reported a 70% increase in stream volume in a single day.
Davies, who conducted the investigation, calculated that the chance of Todd's song reaching number one spontaneously was 1 in 77 octillion. Due to this low probability, 'Earrings' was only available on Kalshi, not on Polymarket options. This case is not isolated, as the THR mentioned a complaint against an editor of the YouTuber MrBeast's channel in the US for insider trading, where one can bet on details such as the length of the next video.
Reactions from Involved Companies
Davies contacted Spotify, Kalshi, and Polymarket. The streaming service confirmed to Wired that it had found proof of artificial streaming, although it did not detail the objectives of the attempted manipulation. Kalshi stated that it is in communication with Spotify and investigating the matter. Meanwhile, Polymarket highlighted that it was not possible to bet on Malcolm Todd and did not identify signs of manipulation in its analyses of the streams.
Sources cited by THR indicate that Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove the streaming platform's logo from their betting websites. Additionally, the music platform decided to implement additional checks before releasing its most-played song charts.
