The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded the issuer's (IDR) long-term rating of JSC UzAuto Motors (UAM) from 'BB-' to 'BB'. The rating outlook remains 'Stable'. Concurrently, the agency improved the rating of the company's senior unsecured eurobonds to 'BB' and assigned a recovery rating of 'RR4'.
Fitch explained that this rating change reflects an improvement in the company's Credit Profile (SCP), which was raised from 'b-' to 'b'. This positive shift is driven by the successful refinancing of eurobonds, increased liquidity buffers, and the expectation of generating positive free cash flow (FCF) between 2026 and 2029.
A key factor contributing to the rating increase was the successful restructuring of UAM's debt obligations. In November 2025, the company placed senior unsecured eurobonds on the market totaling $350 million, maturing in November 2030. Proceeds from this placement were used to fully repay a $300 million eurobond issuance maturing in May 2026, as well as partially repay debts to local commercial banks.
According to the rating agency, the company's financial position has significantly strengthened. By the end of 2025, UzAuto Motors' cash reserves grew to $89.5 million compared to $42.8 million recorded a year earlier. Furthermore, the automaker retains access to approximately $70 million in unused capacity under export credit lines and a syndicated term loan. Fitch anticipates further improvements in the company's liquidity as it transitions to positive free cash flow.
Following two years of sluggish domestic demand and tighter credit conditions, the local market has begun to recover. By the end of 2025, UzAuto Motors sold nearly 400,000 vehicles, and the average domestic price reached $10,600. The company's total revenue amounted to $4.1 billion, and Fitch-defined EBITDA reached $355 million, exceeding the agency's initial forecast of $307 million.
Despite the improved financial performance, free cash flow remained negative in 2025, at minus $52 million. Fitch attributes this deficit to the increase in working capital tied up in unpaid accounts receivable from auto loans issued directly to customers. The agency forecasts that free cash flow will become positive starting in 2026, as these retail loans are gradually repaid and the company ceases its direct consumer financing schemes.
Fitch also highlighted the high level of government involvement in the company's operations. The Government of Uzbekistan indirectly controls 99.7% of UzAuto Motors' equity, actively participates in approving capital expenditure (capex) and financing decisions, and influences pricing policy, particularly in the budget passenger car segment. Examples of state support include tax incentives, shareholder loans, and protective customs tariffs on imported vehicles.
The rating agency noted that UzAuto Motors is a strategically important enterprise for the economy of Uzbekistan. As the sole domestic vehicle producer in volume, it supports over 30,000 jobs directly and indirectly, plays a significant role in the consumer lending ecosystem, and pioneered corporate eurobond issuers in Uzbekistan. Fitch warns that any potential default by UAM would have serious negative consequences for sovereign debt and other state enterprises seeking access to international capital markets.
Nevertheless, the automaker's credit profile is constrained by a high concentration in the domestic market (where the company holds an 80% share), a narrow range of models, the absence of an independent automotive brand, and operational dependence on long-term licensing agreements with General Motors. According to Fitch's analysis, UzAuto Motors sales for 2026 are projected at 400,000 units, with the average vehicle price slightly increasing to $10,800. Annual revenue is expected to grow to $4.4 billion in 2026 and expand to $4.7 billion by 2029. The agency also expects UAM's EBITDA margin to stabilize around 9.5% by 2029, with annual capital expenditures amounting to approximately 1.4% of revenue, and no major mergers or acquisitions are planned.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded the credit rating of the automotive company UzAuto Motors from 'BB-' to 'BB', with a stable outlook set for this rating. This increase is a result of an improvement in the company's standalone credit profile, which was upgraded from 'b-' to 'b'.
Fitch attributed the profile improvement to successful eurobond refinancing, increased liquidity reserves, and forecasts of positive free cash flow between 2026 and 2029. Furthermore, UzAuto Motors' rating is supported by the agency's assessment of an 'extremely high' probability of support from the government of Uzbekistan, which acts as an indirect shareholder. Consequently, the automaker's rating has been equated to the country's sovereign rating—'BB'.
In November 2025, UzAuto Motors refinanced eurobonds totaling $300 million, which were due for repayment in May 2026. The company issued new bonds worth $350 million with a maturity date of November 2030. These funds were used to repay the old eurobonds and part of local bank loans. According to Fitch, this refinancing and the increase in liquidity were key factors in improving the standalone credit profile.
As of the end of 2025, UzAuto Motors' cash reached $89.5 million, up from $42.8 million the previous year. Additionally, the company had access to a $70 million credit line provided by an export-credit agency and a syndicated loan. Fitch forecasts that the company's liquidity will be sustained by positive free cash flow in 2026–2029, which should occur due to a reduced need for working capital, including the gradual repayment of auto loans by individuals. Nevertheless, the agency warns of the risk of deteriorating cash flow and liquidity due to potential fluctuations in working capital.
Over the past two years, UzAuto Motors' revenue and profitability have faced pressure due to declining demand and worsening lending conditions in Uzbekistan. However, in 2025, the company managed to sell nearly 400,000 vehicles. The average price of a vehicle in the domestic market increased from $10,000 in July of the previous year to $10,600. The company's revenue amounted to $4.1 billion, and EBITDA, calculated using Fitch's methodology, reached $355 million. Both figures exceeded the agency's forecasts ($3.7 billion and $307 million, respectively).
Despite the sales growth, free cash flow remained negative at minus $52 million, caused by the increase in outstanding personal auto loan debt. Fitch expects cash flow to become positive starting in 2026, as debt recovery is anticipated and UzAuto Motors ceases direct financing of consumer purchases.
According to Fitch's base case forecast, UzAuto Motors' sales will grow by 1.3% in 2026, reaching 400,000 units. The average vehicle price is expected to be around $10,800 during 2026–2028. Revenue is projected to reach $4.4 billion in 2026, gradually increasing to $4.7 billion by 2029. EBITDA profitability is forecasted at 8.6% in 2026, rising to 9.5% by 2029, driven by increased sales volume. Capital expenditures for 2026–2029 are expected to average 1.4% of revenue. Dividend payments are planned at 25% of profit in 2026 and 2027, then increasing to 30% in 2028 and 2029. Mergers and acquisitions are not included in the forecasts.
The state owns 99.7% of UzAuto Motors, but the company has the right to list up to 5% of its shares on the market. Fitch assesses the state control as tight, as the government approves major investments and fundraising, and participates in price setting, especially in the budget segment. Previously, state support was characterized as 'strong', including tax incentives, shareholder loans, and maintaining import duties for other manufacturers. The company plays a vital role in the economy, being the only major national automaker and employing over 30,000 people.
UzAuto Motors also became the first corporate company from Uzbekistan to issue eurobonds. The agency notes that the default of this company could negatively affect the country's and other state enterprises' ability to raise funds in global markets. On the other hand, the company's standalone credit profile is limited by its small business scale, high concentration of sales within Uzbekistan, narrow product range, and lack of a strong proprietary brand. Production activities are entirely dependent on a long-term licensing agreement with General Motors, which grants access to the American conglomerate's technologies.
UzAuto Motors' rating could be downgraded if Uzbekistan's sovereign rating deteriorates, ties with the state weaken, state support decreases, or if the EBITDA debt burden remains above 2.8 times for an extended period or if free cash flow remains negative. A rating upgrade is possible with an improvement in the country's sovereign rating and strengthening of the company's financial position. For this, the debt burden must consistently remain below 1.3 times, and free cash flow profitability must exceed 2%.
Fitch expects UzAuto Motors to have about $33 million in free cash by the end of 2026, which the agency deems sufficient to cover intra-year working capital fluctuations. The main debt instrument remains the eurobond maturing in November 2030. The Uzbek auto market is seeing stimulation from new entrants such as Chinese BYD, but Moody's notes that competition is regulated to maintain UzAuto Motors' dominant position. In 2025, 457.9 thousand passenger cars were produced in Uzbekistan, a 6.7% increase from the previous year, although the production of mass models like Cobalt, Damas, and Onix decreased, and the share of Chevrolet fell to 83.2%.
Moody's Ratings has made positive changes to the ratings of eleven Uzbek insurance companies. This decision was made after the credit rating of the Government of Uzbekistan issuer was raised from Ba3 to Ba2 on June 25, 2026, and the outlook was changed from positive to stable.
The agency upgraded the Financial Strength Ratings (IFSR) for a number of organizations. For example, Uzbekinvest received an upgrade in local currency IFSR to Ba1 (from Ba2) and foreign currency to Ba2 (from Ba3), and its Basic Credit Rating (BCA) was also upgraded to ba1 (from ba2) with a change in outlook to stable. Uzagrosugurta received an IFSR upgrade to Ba2 (from Ba3) and a BCA upgrade to b1 (from b2), with the outlook also becoming stable.
Other companies also received improvements: Mosaic Insurance Group (MIG) upgraded its IFSR to Ba3 (from B1) with a positive outlook; Quantum Insurance received an IFSR upgrade to Ba3 (from B1) while maintaining a stable outlook; Euroasia Insurance improved its IFSR to B1 (from B2) while maintaining a positive outlook. Kafil and Alskom received an IFSR upgrade to B1 (from B2) while maintaining stable outlooks.
Additionally, Impex Insurance and Neo Insurance upgraded their IFSR to B2 (from B3) with positive outlooks. My Insurance maintained its B2 rating with a stable outlook, and Alfa Invest maintained its B2 rating, changing its outlook from negative to stable.
The rating agency's actions are based on three main factors. Firstly, it is the reassessment of the operating environment in the Uzbek insurance market, which has improved due to the refinement of institutional structures and economic prospects. Secondly, there has been an increase in the credit quality of the government and local commercial banks, which has positively affected the quality of insurers' assets. Thirdly, specific corporate indicators of individual companies were taken into account.
Improvements in the operating environment are supported by economic diversification, sustainable GDP growth, slowing inflation, and ongoing financial sector reforms. Higher interest rates continue to increase investment returns for insurers whose portfolios consist mainly of bank deposits. Nevertheless, the relatively low level of insurance penetration in Uzbekistan compared to global standards remains a limiting factor when assessing the entire market.
Regarding Uzbekinvest, its credit profile exceeds the sovereign rating ceiling due to a significant portfolio of high-quality foreign assets—mainly investment-grade debt securities denominated in US dollars and held through a British subsidiary. Furthermore, the company has a large share of international reinsurance business, which accounted for about 50% of total premiums in 2025. In 2025, the company's net profit reached 55 billion soums, compared to 45 billion soums the previous year.
For Uzagrosugurta, the rating upgrade includes a two-step increase above its standalone credit assessment, reflecting its 99.6% state ownership and systemic importance to the national agricultural sector. The company's net profit for 2025 grew to 14.1 billion soums compared to 4.6 billion soums in 2024.
The positive outlook for Mosaic Insurance Group (MIG) is based on expectations that international reinsurance segments will continue to grow over the next 12–18 months. Net profit grew to 37 billion soums in 2025 from 9 billion soums in 2024, and the solvency ratio reached 244% as of the first quarter of 2026.
Quantum Insurance's rating upgrade is secured by a conservative underwriting policy and a record net profit of 24 billion soums in 2025, while the combined ratio remained consistently below 100%. Euroasia Insurance demonstrated a return on equity of 20% in 2025 thanks to the inflow of international reinsurance business, recovering from a negative 1% in 2024.
Kafil, holding a 3% market share in Uzbekistan, recorded a net profit of 18.7 billion soums in 2025, supported by improved asset quality and strong capital adequacy in retail and commercial divisions. Alskom maintains strong distribution channels through corporate ties with state entities Uzbektelecom and Aloqabank. Net profit grew to 16.2 billion soums, largely driven by investment income, despite modest underwriting profitability.
Thanks to capital injections, Impex Insurance's investment portfolio doubled during 2025, providing a return on equity of 15%. Neo Insurance completed its main investment phase, achieving a profit of 9 billion soums in 2025 after a loss of 1 billion soums in 2024. Gross premiums increased to 130 billion soums from 75 billion soums, confirming the success of the digital retail insurer.
My Insurance's rating was confirmed at B2 because macroeconomic benefits were offset by rapid premium growth (90% in 2025), high exposure to credit insurance (over 80% of the portfolio), and low underwriting profitability. Alfa Invest maintained seventh place in gross premiums with consolidated net profit of 56 billion soums in 2025. The company's ratings are limited by a high group leverage ratio of 47%, resulting from commercial bank loans used to acquire hotel business lines.
The international rating agency Moody's Ratings revised the credit ratings of sixteen Uzbek banks on July 1, 2026. These changes occurred against the backdrop of the country's sovereign rating being raised to Ba2 with a stable outlook, as well as the adjustment of the country's macro profile from 'Weak-' to 'Weak,' reflecting improved business conditions for Uzbek banks.
According to the agency, the strengthening of state institutions and the development of banking supervision and regulation reduce the probability of unexpected defaults and volatility in the banking sector. The average annual growth of Uzbekistan's real GDP over the last three years was about 6.5%, and Moody's expects this pace to remain at 6.0%-6.3% in the medium term. The combination of decreasing inflation and sustainable economic growth will support credit demand and improve the creditworthiness of bank clients.
The most significant changes concerned a number of the country's largest banks. The National Bank of Uzbekistan (NBU) received an upgrade of its long-term deposit ratings to Ba2 from Ba3, and its Basic Credit Assessment (BCA) improved to ba3 from b1. In 2025, the bank earned a net profit of 2.8 trillion soums with a return on tangible assets of 1.9%.
Xalq Bank demonstrated an improvement in key financial indicators: the non-performing loan ratio decreased from 13.7% in 2024 to 5.2%, the capital adequacy ratio increased from 13.7% to 18.8%, and net profit reached a record 1.3 trillion soums. The agency raised the bank's long-term ratings to Ba2 from Ba3, and its BCA to b1 from b2.
Kapitalbank received an upgrade of its long-term deposit rating to Ba3 from B1, and its BCA improved to ba3 from b1. This bank's return on tangible assets in 2025 was 3.4%. Hamkorbank was also upgraded to Ba3 from B1 while maintaining a positive outlook. The bank recorded a net profit of 1.8 trillion soums and a return on tangible assets of 5%, with the non-performing loan ratio remaining at 2%.
SQB (Industrial and Construction Bank) received a rating upgrade to Ba2, and its BCA improved to b2 from b3. The agency noted that in 2026, the bank transferred an additional 10% of its shares to the National Investment Fund of Uzbekistan (UzNif), which successfully conducted an IPO on the London Stock Exchange, which is expected to strengthen the bank's position in international capital markets.
Agrobank and Asakabank maintained their BCA at b2, but their long-term deposit ratings were upgraded to Ba2 with a stable outlook. Microcreditbank (MCB) also received a rating upgrade to Ba2, and its BCA improved to b2 from b3 amid a decrease in the non-performing loan ratio from 15.2% to 12.3%.
Tenge Bank, a subsidiary of Halyk Bank Kazakhstan, was upgraded to Ba2 with a BCA of b2, reflecting a high probability of support from the parent bank. Ipak Yuli Bank was upgraded to Ba3 from BCA ba3, showing a return on tangible assets of 3.2%. Aloqabank and Business Development Bank (BDB) received upgrades to Ba3 from B1. BDB reduced its non-performing loan ratio from 23.3% to 8.2% and returned to profitability after losses in 2024, achieving a return on tangible assets of 1.4%.
The ratings of Asia Alliance Bank and InFinBank remained unchanged at B1. For InFinBank, the outlook was improved from negative to stable. Octobank's rating was confirmed at B3 with a stable outlook after settling a lawsuit with Humans without credit losses for the bank. Garant Bank maintained its Caa1 rating with a positive outlook, despite a loss of 27 billion soums at the end of 2025 and a high non-performing loan ratio of about 14%.
According to Moody's, the sustained improvement in the financial performance of Uzbek banks could serve as a basis for further rating increases over the next 12–18 months. A downgrade may occur if the sovereign credit profile deteriorates or if there is a significant drop in the solvency or liquidity of the banks, which the agency does not currently expect.
