A study by the General Research Center shows that the European Union's (EU) population is currently close to its peak level of 450.6 million people. It is projected that the population will decrease to approximately 445 million by 2050 and reach 398.8 million by 2100, corresponding to a global reduction of about 11.7% compared to the 1970s level.
According to the report, the period from 1960 to 2025 saw significant growth in the EU population of approximately 96 million people, increasing from 354.5 million to 450.6 million. The growth rate slowed between 2005 and 2024 to 0.89 million per year, compared to 3.03 million per year in the 1960s. A decline is expected to begin after reaching a peak of 453.3 million people in 2029.
Concurrently, Europeans are living longer than ever. The life expectancy at birth is expected to reach 81.5 years in 2024, reflecting successes in healthcare, standard of living, and social conditions. By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be aged 65 or older, compared to one in five currently. By 2100, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men.
The demographic study indicates that the annual number of births in the EU has nearly halved over 60 years since the fertility peak of 6.8 million births in 1964. In 2024, only 3.55 million babies were born in the EU, which is the lowest figure in historical records. The General Research Center forecasts the impact of these demographic changes on healthcare: by 2038, the population over 65 will exceed the number of people aged 20 to 40.
These changes will also affect the labor market, particularly by easing access for young people, as well as the social security system, including the sustainability of pension schemes, education, and housing stock.
