The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded the credit rating of the automotive company UzAuto Motors from 'BB-' to 'BB', with a stable outlook set for this rating. This increase is a result of an improvement in the company's standalone credit profile, which was upgraded from 'b-' to 'b'.
Fitch attributed the profile improvement to successful eurobond refinancing, increased liquidity reserves, and forecasts of positive free cash flow between 2026 and 2029. Furthermore, UzAuto Motors' rating is supported by the agency's assessment of an 'extremely high' probability of support from the government of Uzbekistan, which acts as an indirect shareholder. Consequently, the automaker's rating has been equated to the country's sovereign rating—'BB'.
In November 2025, UzAuto Motors refinanced eurobonds totaling $300 million, which were due for repayment in May 2026. The company issued new bonds worth $350 million with a maturity date of November 2030. These funds were used to repay the old eurobonds and part of local bank loans. According to Fitch, this refinancing and the increase in liquidity were key factors in improving the standalone credit profile.
As of the end of 2025, UzAuto Motors' cash reached $89.5 million, up from $42.8 million the previous year. Additionally, the company had access to a $70 million credit line provided by an export-credit agency and a syndicated loan. Fitch forecasts that the company's liquidity will be sustained by positive free cash flow in 2026–2029, which should occur due to a reduced need for working capital, including the gradual repayment of auto loans by individuals. Nevertheless, the agency warns of the risk of deteriorating cash flow and liquidity due to potential fluctuations in working capital.
Over the past two years, UzAuto Motors' revenue and profitability have faced pressure due to declining demand and worsening lending conditions in Uzbekistan. However, in 2025, the company managed to sell nearly 400,000 vehicles. The average price of a vehicle in the domestic market increased from $10,000 in July of the previous year to $10,600. The company's revenue amounted to $4.1 billion, and EBITDA, calculated using Fitch's methodology, reached $355 million. Both figures exceeded the agency's forecasts ($3.7 billion and $307 million, respectively).
Despite the sales growth, free cash flow remained negative at minus $52 million, caused by the increase in outstanding personal auto loan debt. Fitch expects cash flow to become positive starting in 2026, as debt recovery is anticipated and UzAuto Motors ceases direct financing of consumer purchases.
According to Fitch's base case forecast, UzAuto Motors' sales will grow by 1.3% in 2026, reaching 400,000 units. The average vehicle price is expected to be around $10,800 during 2026–2028. Revenue is projected to reach $4.4 billion in 2026, gradually increasing to $4.7 billion by 2029. EBITDA profitability is forecasted at 8.6% in 2026, rising to 9.5% by 2029, driven by increased sales volume. Capital expenditures for 2026–2029 are expected to average 1.4% of revenue. Dividend payments are planned at 25% of profit in 2026 and 2027, then increasing to 30% in 2028 and 2029. Mergers and acquisitions are not included in the forecasts.
The state owns 99.7% of UzAuto Motors, but the company has the right to list up to 5% of its shares on the market. Fitch assesses the state control as tight, as the government approves major investments and fundraising, and participates in price setting, especially in the budget segment. Previously, state support was characterized as 'strong', including tax incentives, shareholder loans, and maintaining import duties for other manufacturers. The company plays a vital role in the economy, being the only major national automaker and employing over 30,000 people.
UzAuto Motors also became the first corporate company from Uzbekistan to issue eurobonds. The agency notes that the default of this company could negatively affect the country's and other state enterprises' ability to raise funds in global markets. On the other hand, the company's standalone credit profile is limited by its small business scale, high concentration of sales within Uzbekistan, narrow product range, and lack of a strong proprietary brand. Production activities are entirely dependent on a long-term licensing agreement with General Motors, which grants access to the American conglomerate's technologies.
UzAuto Motors' rating could be downgraded if Uzbekistan's sovereign rating deteriorates, ties with the state weaken, state support decreases, or if the EBITDA debt burden remains above 2.8 times for an extended period or if free cash flow remains negative. A rating upgrade is possible with an improvement in the country's sovereign rating and strengthening of the company's financial position. For this, the debt burden must consistently remain below 1.3 times, and free cash flow profitability must exceed 2%.
Fitch expects UzAuto Motors to have about $33 million in free cash by the end of 2026, which the agency deems sufficient to cover intra-year working capital fluctuations. The main debt instrument remains the eurobond maturing in November 2030. The Uzbek auto market is seeing stimulation from new entrants such as Chinese BYD, but Moody's notes that competition is regulated to maintain UzAuto Motors' dominant position. In 2025, 457.9 thousand passenger cars were produced in Uzbekistan, a 6.7% increase from the previous year, although the production of mass models like Cobalt, Damas, and Onix decreased, and the share of Chevrolet fell to 83.2%.
