A study conducted in June showed that inflation expectations among the population of Uzbekistan for the next 12 months remained at 10.1%. Among entrepreneurs, this figure slightly decreased to 9.9%. The data was obtained from a survey involving 3785 residents and 1911 entrepreneurs.
The public continues to consider the increase in utility costs as the main source of future price growth, although the share of such respondents decreased from 59% in May to 56% in June. However, concerns about rising fuel and energy resource prices increased—from 45% to 46%. A particularly noticeable rise was shown by the share of those who expect inflationary pressure due to wage and social benefit increases, which rose from 15% to 23%.
Fewer respondents linked future inflation to increased transport costs (27% compared to 29% in May), or to artificial price hikes or monopolies (22% compared to 23%). The assessment of the impact of price increases on staple food products and currency exchange rate fluctuations remained unchanged—at 19%.
For the business community, utility services are also the main factor of inflation, although their share decreased from 59% to 58%. Second in line is the rise in fuel and energy resource prices, noted by 51% of entrepreneurs compared to 49% in May. Businesses are also concerned about transport costs (an increase from 33% to 37%), rising raw material costs (from 19% to 23%), wage and benefit increases (from 18% to 24%), and changes in the currency exchange rate (from 16% to 18%). High tax burden remains significant, cited by 19% of entrepreneurs.
Among the population, the highest inflation expectations were recorded among workers in domestic services (13%), medicine (11.9%), pensioners (11.7%), and transport services (11.3%). The lowest expectations were shown by students and representatives of the banking and financial sector, whose figures stood at 8.9%. In the business segment, the highest forecasts were given by companies in culture and art (11.7%), transport services (11.6%), construction (11.2%), and healthcare (10.6%). The lowest expectations among entrepreneurs were observed in manufacturing, cafes, restaurants, and agriculture (at 9.3%).
By region, in June, the highest inflation expectations among the population were recorded in Tashkent (12%, unchanged), Fergana region (11.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points), and Andijan region (11.2%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points). The lowest figures were noted in Khorezm region (8.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point), Navoi region (8.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points), and Namangan region (9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points). Among entrepreneurs, the leaders in expectations are Jizzakh region (11.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points), Tashkent (11%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points), and Syrdarya region (10.9%). The lowest expectations among businesses are in Bukhara region (8.1%), Navoi region (8.5%), and Namangan region (8.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points).
Depending on income level, the lowest inflation expectations among the population with an income up to 2 million soms are 8.2%, while the highest forecast (13.9%) belongs to respondents with incomes over 30 million soms. Groups with incomes of 15–20 million soms, 20–30 million soms, 10–15 million soms, and 7–10 million soms expect price growth of 12.6%, 12.3%, 12.2%, and 11.5%, respectively. For people without income, inflation expectations rose to 9.3%.
Inflation expectations represent the perception of both the population and businesses regarding future price growth over the next 12 months, and they can influence real inflation: people may accelerate purchases before price increases, and companies may anticipate projected cost increases in pricing, budgets, and labor costs.
