A new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) presents an alarming forecast: 35 million new cancer cases are expected globally each year by 2050, which is a 67% increase over current figures.
However, health experts emphasize that this trend is not a sudden emergence of a new disease. The growth is linked to more complex factors observed in many countries, including South Africa: increased life expectancy, population growth, and modern lifestyles that raise the risk of preventable cancer.
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Current Cancer Situation
The report, released by WHO in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), 'Global Cancer Observatory 2026,' estimates that cancer already claims about 10 million lives annually, with approximately 20.6 million new cases diagnosed each year. This makes cancer the second leading cause of death worldwide after cardiovascular diseases.
Despite this, the report asserts that many future cancer cases and deaths are still preventable. WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that cancer is a deeply personal disease affecting almost everyone, and a person's survival should not depend on their place of birth or income level.
Reasons for Increased Incidence
Many mistakenly believe that the rise in cancer cases signifies the deterioration of planetary health. In reality, experts suggest that part of this increase indicates progress. According to WHO data, nearly four out of ten cancer cases are linked to preventable risk factors.
Increase in Body Mass Index
Obesity is rapidly spreading worldwide, and it is causally linked to at least 13 different types of cancer. This risk is amplified by chronic inflammation and hormonal imbalances caused by excess fat cells.
Poor Diet
Modern diets, rich in highly processed foods, animal fats, and sugary drinks, alter gut microbiome and lead to metabolic imbalances. This is a primary driver of the rise in early-onset colorectal cancer in adults under 50.
Sedentary Lifestyle
Insufficient physical activity directly increases the likelihood of developing colon, breast, and endometrial cancer. This trend is exacerbated by the global shift towards office work.
Alcohol Consumption and Air Pollution
Alcohol acts as a dangerous cellular solvent and breaks down into acetaldehyde, which irreversibly damages cell DNA. It is responsible for approximately 4% of global cancer cases, including breast, liver, and intestinal cancer. Furthermore, air pollutants are becoming an increasingly significant risk factor.
IARC Director Dr. Elizabeth Weidermann warned that while some countries have succeeded in reducing certain types of cancer through prevention programs, the overall picture is changing. She noted that the cancer profile is evolving, becoming increasingly driven by rising obesity, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, and air pollution, and stressed that cancer prevention must remain a political priority.
Impact of Residence on Survival
One of the most alarming findings in the report is the vast disparity in survival rates. According to WHO data, a woman diagnosed with breast cancer in a high-income country has an 87% chance of surviving at least five years, whereas in low-income countries, this figure is only about 42%.
The reason for this difference lies not in biology but in the accessibility of healthcare. Less than a third of countries include comprehensive cancer care in their universal health insurance packages, leaving millions without timely screening, diagnosis, treatment, or palliative care.
Situation in South Africa
For residents of South Africa, this report arrives at a time when the country is already grappling with the growing burden of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and heart disease, alongside cancer. Although the cancer incidence rate in Africa is currently lower than in many wealthier regions, mortality remains disproportionately high due to late diagnosis and limited access to treatment.
WHO forecasts that Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean will experience one of the most significant increases in cancer cases globally by 2050, placing additional pressure on already overburdened healthcare systems. Consequently, prevention is becoming one of the most effective tools.
While simple lifestyle changes will not eliminate cancer entirely, they can significantly reduce the risk. The most effective preventive measures include quitting tobacco, limiting alcohol intake, maintaining a healthy weight, regular physical activity, protecting skin from excessive sun, adhering to a balanced diet, and vaccination against HPV and hepatitis B.
Positive trends are also noted: global tobacco consumption has significantly decreased over the last decade, and 85% of countries have included HPV vaccination in national immunization programs, protecting future generations from cervical cancer. Thus, the forecast of 35 million cases by 2050 should be viewed not as an inevitability, but as a call for earlier action, smarter investments, and the construction of healthcare systems that do not leave survival to chance.
