Monsoon rainfall deficit in India reaches 18% amid dry spell

According to IMD data, the southwest (summer) monsoon has spread across the entire country, reaching the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab on Thursday. This occurred one day later than the planned date for full coverage of India, which was July 8.

Monsoon Season Dynamics

It took the monsoon 36 days to fully cover the country after it started its three-day delay over Kerala on June 4. Typically, the monsoon covers all of India in 38 days (from June 1 to July 8). It usually begins to withdraw from northwestern India around September 17 and completely leaves by October 15.

However, an early or late start/coverage of the monsoon does not affect the quantitative or spatial aspects of rainfall during the four-month season. Nevertheless, it determines the course of sowing operations for summer-sown crops (kharif) and crop selection, as farmers are forced to make decisions based on the irrigation cycle that the plant may require.

Rainfall Status and Agriculture

Thanks to good rainfall over the last eight days, the monsoon has reduced the overall national cumulative deficit (from June 1 to July 9) from 40% as of June 30 to 14% on Thursday. However, the uneven distribution of rainfall creates another problem: 10 states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Punjab, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Goa, still report a significant deficit.

Consequently, sowing operations in these states are progressing slowly, affecting the total area sown. Data as of July 6 shows that the area sown with kharif crops has decreased by 21% compared to the same period last year, with a reduction in sown area for rice, pulses, oilseeds, millet, and cotton compared to 2025.

Weather Forecasts and Risk Zones

The current temporary relief from the low phase of the monsoon is likely to be short-lived in some parts of the country. For instance, the meteorological department predicted on Thursday a 'significant decrease in rainfall activity' in central India, including Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as in the southern peninsula of India in the coming days. This will affect the 'monsoon core'—the zone dependent on rain for agricultural operations.

The southwest monsoon completely covered the entire country on Thursday, 35 days after entering the mainland through the Kerala coast. This marked one of the slowest advances of the monsoon in the last five years.

Monsoon Season Dynamics

According to data published by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon reached the Kerala coast on June 4th this year, three days later than normal, and fully covered the country on July 9th.

After a slow start, the monsoon picked up pace in July, which helped reduce the cumulative rainfall deficit from nearly 30 percent as of June 30th to approximately 15 percent by July 8th. This significant progress was due to the active revival of monsoon activity over western and central India.

Forecasts and Agricultural Implications

The improved rainfall levels are also expected to support the cultivation of Kharif crops, which were lagging behind last year's pace by almost 22 percent as of July 5th. Nevertheless, the IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for the current year, expecting the southwest monsoon to account for 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the June to September season.

Central Government Response Measures

Meanwhile, the Central Government is developing a multi-pronged strategy to mitigate the negative impact of El Niño and insufficient rainfall. A few days ago, the Prime Minister's Cabinet held a high-level meeting with key ministries, including the ministries of agriculture, energy, rural development, economic affairs, and consumer affairs, to assess the potential impact of El Niño on various sectors of the economy.

In an official statement released after this meeting, the ministries presented detailed assessments of their preparedness and were instructed to closely monitor the evolving situation, implementing micro-level and localized strategies to ensure that agricultural production and economic activities are not affected in areas with rainfall deficits.

The Union Ministry of Agriculture is also closely monitoring the situation. It has identified about 375 districts that may be susceptible to rainfall deficits, of which 111 are classified as 'extremely vulnerable.'

This June concludes as the third driest June recorded in India over the past century. Approximately a day before the end of the month, the nationwide rainfall deficit reached 42%, which may indicate that El Niño is already affecting the Indian monsoon.

June Rainfall Statistics

As of now, the average rainfall across the country in June was 92.2 mm, while the normal amount is 157.7 mm. If sufficient rainfall occurs on Tuesday, the last day of the month, the total rainfall for June is likely to reach about 100 mm.

Over the last hundred years (the period from 1927 to 2026), only two years had lower total rainfall in June: 2009 (87.5 mm) and 2014 (92.1 mm), both of which fall within the last two decades.

Forecasts for the Near Future

On a positive note, according to IMD forecasts, the first week of July is expected to bring more abundant and evenly distributed rains in most regions of the country, especially in Central India, which currently has the highest deficit of monsoon rainfall.

Regional Imbalances and El Niño

Central India is facing a significant rainfall deficit of 54% as of this month. This is followed by Eastern and Northeastern regions with a deficit of 41%, Northwestern regions with 30%, and Southern regions with 28%. It is extremely rare for all four regions of the country to record such significant rainfall shortages, which may suggest that El Niño has begun to influence the Indian monsoon.

According to an update published last week by the American agency International Research Institute for Climate and Society, El Niño was already approaching moderate strength amid rapid warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is predicted that El Niño will intensify over the next few months.

Impact of El Niño on Weather

This is significant because a stronger phenomenon increases the probability of impacting the Indian monsoon. El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of surface waters in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean, accompanied by changes in wind patterns that affect weather worldwide, including a negative impact on the Indian summer monsoon.

Following a weak start to the monsoon in Kerala on June 4th, rainfall has not significantly increased. During June, daily rainfall across the country exceeded the norm on only one day.