During the current World Cup, a group of people decided to bet millions of dollars on whether football superstar Cristiano Ronaldo would cry during a match. This bet was placed on the Polymarket platform, which is common in the world of prediction markets, where people bet on all sorts of events, from the appearance of aliens to attempted coups in Russia.
Traders seeking an advantage began meticulously studying Ronaldo's long and eventful career in search of signs of tears. His history included moments of despair, such as during Portugal's painful loss at the 2022 World Cup, when he knelt and cried. Happy tears were also recorded, such as this year when he helped his club win its first title in Saudi Arabia.
This week, the chances of tears were estimated at about 70%. The match on Monday was supposed to be the last for the 41-year-old legend, as Portugal lost to Spain 1-0. This could have been his last World Cup match.
After the game, users on the Polymarket Discord channel began uploading and closely examining enlarged photos of Ronaldo's face. Odds constantly changed as new data emerged. Arrows pointed to potential tears in Ronaldo's right eye and nose. New video clips were studied frame by frame.
One user from the 'no tears' camp stated that it was 'just sweat and shiny skin,' noting that while he was 'tearing up fighting it,' there were no obvious tears. Another pointed to Ronaldo's stronger previous outbursts, citing three 'good examples,' including Ronaldo's speech upon receiving the 'Ballon d'Or' in 2013, where liquid was clearly visible on the right side of his cheek.
However, proponents of the tear theory rejected the so-called 'sweat theory.' One Discord user wrote: 'Yes, he cried, and we all know he cried. You can conclude this from microexpressions of sadness in videos and photos.' Some supporters of the tear version referenced headlines and articles. A BBC headline read: 'Ronaldo's World Cup career ends in tears...', and ESPN also contained a sad description: 'Apparently emotional Ronaldo wiped away tears while applauding fans.' This user added: 'You cannot wipe away tears that are not there.'
According to Polymarket procedures, disputed markets are passed to the company's internal market team for review and then formally voted on by UMA cryptocurrency holders. After the disputes began, Polymarket flagged the market for verification and ultimately decided: yes, he cried. The company stated: 'At the time of this clarification, there is qualified photo and video evidence taken on the field after the Portugal versus Spain match showing Cristiano Ronaldo crying, including visible tears on his face.'
Nevertheless, Polymarket did not disclose what specific evidence was used to make the decision. Following this final verdict, millions of dollars changed hands upon the completion of the trade. One user in the market comments expressed outrage with the question: 'Where is the evidence?' Another asked if Gianni Infantino had made the decision, mentioning the controversial FIFA president.
A source familiar with the Polymarket process reported that the crying was obviously debatable: 'It's a complete Rorschach test. Any outcome could happen.'
Dr. Wingelhoetz, a clinical psychologist and professor of emotions and well-being from Tilburg University, a leading expert on crying focusing on 'emotional tears,' noted that the video showed Ronaldo on the verge of tears, but he was trying hard to hold them back. Dr. Wingelhoetz stated: 'He is clearly about to cry. But he is fighting it.'
In Dr. Wingelhoetz's opinion, if the presence of tears is used as the decisive criterion, the conclusion should be: there were no tears. However, he also said that by his own definition, it could be considered crying. He emphasized: 'I completely agree with the conclusion that, despite the absence of visible tears, what we see here is crying and the struggle against it.'
Traditionally, resolving bets does not raise doubts: for example, the New York Knicks winning by 10 points or Jaylen Brown scoring 31 points. In such cases, there is nothing in the protocol that can be disputed. However, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have opened the door to bets that previously seemed unthinkable.
Polymarket has a market on whether Jesus will return, which will only be settled 'if the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before December 31, 2026, 23:59 Eastern Time.' Furthermore, there is a secondary market on whether the odds of the Jesus return market will exceed a certain percentage. Due to the huge sums of money invested in these markets, semantic disputes have turned into financial ones. Earlier this year, markets appeared on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding whether rapper Cardi B would perform at the Super Bowl semi-finals. During her appearance, Bad Bunny featured Cardi B as a guest, dancing next to actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal, but she did not sing. Her appearance led to intensive analysis of the phrase 'performed.' Polymarket ultimately marked its $5 million market as 'Yes,' while Kalshi partially refunded its users. According to the New York Times, at least one trader filed a complaint against Kalshi with federal authorities because of this decision.
