The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts an acceleration of Uzbekistan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 7.9 percent in 2026. The bank's analysts believe this figure will be the highest in the last decade, excluding the recovery after the 2021 pandemic.
It is expected that the country's economy will grow by 6.9 percent in 2027 and by 6.5 percent in 2028. According to the EDB forecast, Uzbekistan's economy will maintain high growth rates over the next two years.
The main drivers of this growth include increased domestic demand, accelerated investment activity, and increased production volumes in industry and construction. Based on the first quarter of 2026, the country's GDP exceeded the annual rate by 8.7 percent, with the service sector, industry, and construction making the largest contribution to economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Uzbekistan's foreign exchange reserves will increase by 8% over the next three years.
According to the fund, the country's international reserves are at an acceptable level. The IMF expects that by the end of 2026, these reserves will be able to cover imports for a period exceeding 12 months.
The baseline forecast for Uzbekistan's economy remains favorable. The fund anticipates that the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by approximately 6.8% in 2026 and by 6% in the following year. Growth will be supported by private consumption, investments, and further structural reforms.
Furthermore, the IMF predicts that the current account deficit in 2026 will decrease to 3.2% of GDP, linked to rising gold prices. However, the fund also noted the persistent high degree of uncertainty. External threats include a deterioration in the global economic situation and geopolitical tension, while internal risks involve potential growth in government spending and expansion of subsidized lending programs.
Previously, the IMF noted that Uzbekistan's economy is demonstrating steady growth but emphasized the need for cautious economic policy amid existing domestic and global risks.
Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) presented a forecast regarding the US currency exchange rate in Uzbekistan for 2027, suggesting that after a recent decline, the dollar will begin to rise again. Experts anticipate a gradual weakening of the Uzbek sum during the 2027–2028 period.
According to EDB's conservative scenario, the average dollar exchange rate in 2027 will be 12,900 sums. In 2028, this figure, according to analysts, may increase to 14,100 sums. In the current year of 2026, EDB expects the average rate to be 12,200 sums per dollar, which is an adjustment from previous expectations of 12,800 sums, driven by strengthening supporting factors.
Arthur Sharafutdinov, Head of the EDB Country Analysis Center, explained that moderate devaluation of the national currency will follow a period of its strengthening. This is linked to the maintenance of high domestic demand and import growth rates, which outpace other indicators. The growing need for foreign products, caused by the active stage of the investment cycle, equipment purchases, and economic modernization, naturally increases the demand for foreign currency in the republic, leading to a gradual weakening of the sum.
Nevertheless, analysts warn that the fall of the national currency in the medium term will be limited. Stable high gold prices, ensuring sustainable export revenues, as well as projected growth in remittances from abroad, should help curb the process and support the stability of the sum in 2027–2028. The bank's experts also recalled that in 2025, the national currency rate showed strengthening on average for the year.
Sharafutdinov noted that a whole complex of positive factors worked in 2025: the inflow of foreign direct investment reached $19 billion, accounting for 13% of GDP, as well as high volumes of transfers and attractive interest rates on sum assets. The Head of the EDB Country Analysis Center concluded that this is a favorable factor for slowing inflation and achieving the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's target of 5% more quickly, which benefits consumers through more affordable imported goods.
Although the inflow of foreign capital will continue to support the currency supply in the coming years, in 2027, its influence will be partially offset by the growth of imports of machinery and intermediate goods intended for investment projects.
