According to American meteorologists, the El Niño weather pattern has intensified over the past month and is highly likely to be among the largest when it reaches its peak between October and December.
El Niño Forecast and Strength Definition
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported an 81% probability of a 'very strong' El Niño occurring between October and December. This phenomenon could rank among the largest events in historical records dating back to 1950. A 'very strong' El Niño is defined as a temperature increase of 2.0 degrees Celsius or more above the baseline value. Furthermore, the center established a 97% probability that this event will persist until early 2027.
Expert Opinions on Record Events
This forecast aligns with the opinion of Tim Stockdale, an El Niño expert from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, who noted that if this event does not become a record, it will be a 'very big surprise' this week.
Global Consequences of El Niño
El Niño typically has a global impact, including drought and dry conditions in Australia, as well as wetter winters in East Africa and southern United States. Climatologist Isla Simpson from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research told AFP that 'there is enough evidence from our models that global warming is increasing El Niño variability, so we are getting both larger El Niño events and larger La Niña events.'
La Niña represents a cooling phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Within the U.S., El Niño events often lead to 'drought relief' in some regions, including California, but simultaneously cause drying in other areas. The connection with Europe is less certain and weaker, but there is evidence that El Niño may increase the probability of cold late-winter conditions in Northern Europe, according to Simpson.
Current Ocean Conditions
Simpson added that the most likely scenario is typical El Niño teleconnections, but in any specific case, the situation could deviate due to random uncertainties. She emphasized that in addition to long-term predictable signals, weather phenomena can occur.
The Center reported that sea surface temperatures in a specific area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, known as the Niño 3.4 region, currently exceed the average temperature by 1.2 degrees Celsius. Combined with warming subsurface waters and changes in wind and barometric patterns, 'the ocean-atmosphere system has reflected the intensification of El Niño.' Although El Niño usually peaks between November and February, the corresponding temperature spike is typically observed later. Exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, the latest El Niño contributed to 2023 being the second warmest year on record, and 2024 being the hottest.