Shiv Gupta, founder and CEO of Sanctum Wealth, stated in an interview with Abhinav Ranjan that after a long period of dominance by small and mid-sized companies, investor interest is reviving for large-cap stocks. He emphasized that profitability remains a key factor for the markets, and expected profit growth in the mid-range for FY27 will be crucial given that current valuations are not cheap.
Factors Shaping the Market in the Second Half of the Year
Despite the continued role of interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy in India, following a 125 basis point easing and pause, now acts more as a stabilizer than an expected short-term yield driver. In the future, three factors will play a vital role: corporate earnings, energy prices, and the inflow of foreign investment.
Triggers for Investors
The immediate trigger is the seasonal reporting cycle, as achieving planned profit targets is critical when valuations are low. Furthermore, investors should closely watch the progress of the agreement between India and the US, as well as the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as inflation and growth develop. Geopolitical events remain on the radar, but they are expected to have less impact than earlier this year. The IPO pipeline deserves special attention, as healthy capital formation is positive, but the large volume of issuance competes for investor liquidity.
Portfolio Strategy Recommendations
For a balanced portfolio, Gupta recommends allocating funds approximately in a ratio of 40 percent in equities, 25 percent in debt instruments, and 25 percent in alternative assets, including private equity, private debt, and gold. A moderate overweight position of 10 percent is maintained for gold. It was also noted that interest in large-cap stocks is reviving after small and mid-sized companies dominated the discussion. In the fixed-income segment, healthy demand has been observed for private and structured credit, and private equity continues to attract long-term investors. A noticeable change has been the growing adoption of gold, as well as increasingly silver, as permanent components of diversified portfolios. Moreover, international investment has expanded.
Market Dynamics and Technology
Although mid and small-cap companies outperformed large-caps last year, both groups sharply corrected in the second half of 2024 and again in 2025. Even after this, many trade at higher multiples relative to their own history than large-cap stocks. The Nifty 50 index is valued slightly below a 21x trailing earnings multiple, down from 23x to 24x the previous year. Market leadership is shifting, and value is being seen in large-cap stocks, which represent a less crowded market segment in case of sentiment changes. Regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI), Gupta believes that markets often oscillate between excessive optimism and pessimism when valuing new technologies. History shows that technological shifts rarely eliminate industries overnight but reward companies with competent management teams that react quickly and utilize new technologies effectively. Most of the market's focus was on the infrastructure supporting AI; the next phase, where implementation transforms into applications built on this infrastructure and drives productivity gains across various sectors, is still evolving and could create opportunities in many sectors, including India.
The Future of Wealth Management Industry
Long-term opportunities in wealth management in India remain exceptionally attractive due to rising household wealth, increasing savings financial activity, product diversification, and growing demand for advice. However, the business is becoming more demanding: competition is high, talent is scarce, technology requires constant investment, and client expectations continue to rise. AI-driven technologies are likely to cause massive structural changes over the next decade, enabling firms not only to increase productivity but also to completely rethink their service models. Gupta believes that scalability is important, and consolidation is inevitable, with early examples already being observed. A prolonged period of sluggish market, increased investment needs, or several firm-level setbacks caused by excessive optimism could accelerate this process.
Margin Pressure and Sanctum's Strategy
Acknowledging some margin pressure due to increased competition, greater investor caution towards certain instruments in the short term, and rising costs, Gupta notes that these factors are offset by powerful structural tailwinds. Over the full cycle, industry margins remain in a healthy range. At Sanctum, these short-term realities are recognized, and actions are tactically adjusted, including a more patient and selective approach to hiring. Nevertheless, the company remains firmly focused on the long term, continuing to invest in people, productivity, and technology to build capacity and strengthen the platform.