MiniMax's shares dropped by 24% after the lock-up period expired, but within a few hours, the company raised $2.2 billion in Hong Kong dollars. This contrast demonstrates a fundamental divergence in how markets value companies providing artificial intelligence platforms compared to companies releasing AI-based products.
During the 48 hours that illustrated the valuation dilemma in the AI industry, MiniMax faced both a 24% stock drop due to the unlock and a funding round of $2.2 billion HKD. This round was oversubscribed seven times by more than 100 institutional investors from Asia, Europe, and the US. This contradiction reveals a deep split in market approaches to valuing different categories of AI companies.
On July 9th, MiniMax first encountered the expiration of its lock-up, when 153 million shares hit the market, accounting for nearly half of the total equity. Shares plummeted almost 18% during the day, closing down 17.6%. Investor concern stemmed from a dispute over the pricing of the M3 model, the mandatory switch to token-based billing which caused user dissatisfaction, as well as regulatory pressure on companion AI products like Xingye, which are subject to the strictest rules regarding emotional interaction with AI in China.
The next day, MiniMax announced it had raised $2.2 billion HKD from sovereign wealth funds, long-term funds, Chinese institutions, and multi-strategy funds. The sevenfold oversubscription showed that while panic selling occurred in the secondary market, primary market investors actively competed to buy. Founder Yang Juezhe simultaneously stated that he would forgo his entire salary until the company achieved profitability, contribute 4% of personal shares to incentivize the team, and establish a 1% open-source fund.
The sharp contrast between MiniMax and Zhipu AI, whose shares rose by 13% after the preceding unlock, reflects two different valuation approaches operating in the AI sector. One approach views AI companies as infrastructural platform projects, where the market bets on future technological leadership and ecosystem positioning. The other approach values AI companies as product companies, where the price is determined by metrics such as DAU, ARPU, customer churn, and monetization paths.
MiniMax, possessing consumer products Hailuo AI and Xingye alongside an open platform, became the first Chinese AI company to be fully assessed through the lens of public company discipline, covering shareholder structure, non-traded stock pressure, gross profit, and commercial sustainability. Analysts note that this phenomenon is not unique to MiniMax but represents an industry-wide recalibration as the AI hype cycle transitions into a phase based on fundamental metrics.
In an internal memo, founder Yang Juezhe acknowledged a blind spot in corporate culture: an engineering-focused emphasis on model intelligence that neglected user communication during the pricing policy transition. The company is currently implementing structural changes while maintaining the conviction that economies of scale are the key driver of AI value.
