The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a quarterly review of the global gas market, according to which supplies of Russian pipeline gas to Uzbekistan in 2026 may increase by more than 40%, reaching over 10 billion cubic meters, compared to the current 7 billion cubic meters.
The IEA report notes that Russia continues to increase its exports to Uzbekistan using the 'Central Asia—Center' main gas pipeline system through the territory of Kazakhstan. According to the National Committee for Statistics, in 2025, the cost of gas imported from Russia and Turkmenistan decreased by 1.2%, amounting to $1.66 billion. Simultaneously, the physical volume of Russian gas supplies increased by 14.9%, rising from 5.64 billion to 6.48 billion cubic meters.
This increase in imports occurs against the backdrop of an overall decline in domestic gas production. The IEA reports that in January-May, natural gas production in Uzbekistan decreased by 14%, corresponding to a reduction of 2.6 billion cubic meters compared to the same period last year. The agency explains this slump as a deterioration in the ability of existing fields to maintain previous production volumes.
For comparison, gas production volumes in Turkmenistan remained almost unchanged during the same period. In Kazakhstan, according to IEA estimates, commodity gas production decreased by approximately 8%, or more than 1 billion cubic meters.
Overall, gas production in Eurasia began to recover in the first half of the year after falling by 3% in 2025, preliminarily showing an increase of almost 2.5%, with Russia contributing the main share to this. The IEA forecasts that regional production will increase by 2% by the end of 2026. Gas demand in Eurasian countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, may rise by almost 3%, partly due to colder winters at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, regional production still lags behind the 2021 level by 9%.
Globally, the IEA forecasts a slight decrease in natural gas demand—about 0.5%, or 20 billion cubic meters. This would be the third annual decline in the current decade after 2020 and 2022. The main reason cited for this trend is the conflict in the Middle East and restrictions on liquefied natural gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the crisis provided nearly 20% of global LNG supplies. As a result of the deficit, European gas prices rose by 32% year-on-year in the second quarter, and spot LNG prices in Asia rose by 45%.
Furthermore, it is mentioned that in January-May, Uzbekistan imported natural gas worth $724.7 million, which is 84.1% higher than the previous year's figure. Moreover, in the updated statistics for the first five months of 2025, the amount was $108.1 million higher than the previous year's report, while gas exports decreased by almost a third.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the volume of Russian gas supplies to Uzbekistan via the Central Asia-Center pipeline system will exceed 10 billion cubic meters by 2026.
According to the IEA report on the gas market, supplies of Russian gas to Uzbekistan, delivered through Kazakhstan, will continue to grow. The agency expects supply volumes to increase from 7 billion cubic meters in 2025 to slightly over 10 billion cubic meters in 2026.
Previously, Gazprom reported a 15% increase in gas supplies to Uzbekistan, reaching 6.5 billion cubic meters by the end of 2025. Uzbekistan and Gazprom signed a gas supply agreement in June 2023, with actual deliveries commencing in October of the same year.
In October 2025, the Russian side announced the continued implementation of a contract for the annual supply of 7.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Uzbekistan, noting the potential for further volume increases.
Furthermore, in June 2024, Gazprom signed gas supply agreements with Kyrgyzstan, as well as transit agreements with Kazakhstan for transporting Russian gas to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan for the period from 2025 to 2040.
It was previously reported that the government of Uzbekistan plans to modernize the country's main gas pipeline system to increase capacity for importing Russian gas from 9 million to 32 million cubic meters per day.
