A new study, conducted by Austrian researcher Sergey Ivliev, proposes an explanation for astronomy's great mystery: why humanity has never detected signals from highly developed extraterrestrial civilizations. This work was published as a preprint on the arXiv platform.
Advanced Automation Hypothesis
The central thesis suggests that societies reaching a high level of AI-based automation would cease undertaking large, visible space projects. Instead, they would adopt more discreet methods for expanding throughout the cosmos.
This proposal aims to reinterpret the so-called Fermi Paradox, a question raised in the 1950s that contrasts the high probability of intelligent life in the galaxy with the lack of concrete evidence of its existence.
The Concept of the Silent Expansion Filter
The article introduces the concept of the 'Silent Expansion Filter.' According to this theory, a civilization that establishes an autonomous industrial and computational system outside its planet would stop investing in grandiose endeavors motivated by power or prestige.
At this stage, the priority would shift to more logical objectives, such as knowledge preservation, increasing the species' chances of survival, and ensuring redundancy against possible catastrophes.
Autonomous AI-Cosmoindustry (AICI) and Probes
This technological stage is termed Autonomous AI-Cosmoindustry (AICI). The study defines AICI as the condition where a society possesses space infrastructure capable of designing, building, repairing, and launching equipment without continuous biological intervention. Current initiatives, such as space data centers, are seen only as preliminary steps in this regard.
The argument is reinforced by reflections from astrophysicist Sergey Popov, who argues that a truly rational artificial intelligence would not have human motivations, such as the desire for conquest or recognition. For this AI, disseminating infrastructure throughout the universe would merely be a risk mitigation strategy.
Instead of moving large populations in vast interstellar vessels, the proposal foresees sending small interstellar probes. The study's calculation indicates that a capsule of about 10 kilograms traveling at approximately 1% of the speed of light would consume a minimal fraction of the energy available to a civilization of this technological level.
Function and Limitations of Probes
These probes would act as contingency systems, carrying records of the knowledge accumulated by the civilization and, potentially, enough biological material for an artificial intelligence to reconstruct society after a disaster. Due to their compact and discreet nature, such structures would be much harder to detect than megastructures or large space fleets.
The researcher also notes that this model would require restrictions on the probes' self-replication capacity, aiming to prevent the scenario known as 'grey goo,' where reproductive machines consume resources uncontrollably.
Implications for Technosignature Detection
The hypothesis also provides an explanation for the absence of technosignatures from extremely advanced civilizations. From this perspective, the fact that telescopes do not identify thermal signatures compatible with Kardashev Type III societies would not imply that the galaxy is empty; the reason would be that successful civilizations would choose to remain intentionally discreet.
However, the study points to a less optimistic possibility. If sending these probes is relatively simple for sufficiently evolved societies, the lack of evidence near the Solar System could suggest two things: either humanity is among the first civilizations to reach such a technological level, or there is an extremely complex phase between planetary industrial development and the consolidation of autonomous space infrastructure.