According to the Central Bank's financial stability review for 2025, the debt burden on the population of Uzbekistan has decreased due to the tightening of macroprudential requirements. However, risks remain in the debt structure related to an increase in the number of borrowers with multiple simultaneous loans and the deterioration of microloan quality.
The average debt service-to-income ratio for individuals who received a bank loan decreased from 38% in 2024 to 37%. Meanwhile, the share of loans issued to borrowers with a debt service-to-income ratio of no more than 50% increased from 58% to 74% of the total payments.
The most noticeable reduction in burden was observed in secured segments. The average debt service-to-income ratio for mortgage loans was 49%, which is 22 percentage points lower than the previous year. Similarly, for auto loans, the indicator fell from 60% to 37%. The regulator attributes this to direct restrictions effective from July 24, 2025, which stipulate that the loan-to-value ratio for mortgages must not exceed 85%. The average loan-to-value ratio for issued mortgages was 76%, and for auto loans—73%.
Microloans showed the opposite trend: the average debt service-to-income ratio in this segment rose from 37% to 40%. The Central Bank noted that the lack of requirements for the targeted use of funds and collateral accelerates the expansion of the borrower base and leads to an increase in the debt burden.
The main structural change of the year was the increase in the number of people servicing multiple debts simultaneously. Among those who received a bank loan in 2025, this group accounted for 53%, compared to 43% the previous year. The regulator warned that the necessity of repaying several loans simultaneously weakens borrowers' solvency.
The geography of borrowing is also transforming. The share of citizens who have obligations only to banks decreased from 81% to 62% of the total number of borrowers. At the same time, the share of clients of non-bank organizations increased from 11% to 20%, and the share of those who have debts both to banks and to non-bank organizations increased from 8% to 18%. Regarding total outstanding debt, banks remain the dominant player, accounting for 94% of all household consumer debt.
Borrowers' self-assessments appear more alarming than official statistics. According to a Central Bank survey conducted between January 20, 2026, and January 27, 2026, among 5,800 respondents across all regions of the country, 61% of debtors reported difficulties with timely repayment. The average debt burden of surveyed bank borrowers reached 51% of their income, with 47% exceeding half of their earnings. Furthermore, 8% of respondents admitted to taking out a new loan to repay an old one.
Expectations remain moderately optimistic: 47% predict an improvement in their solvency within the next six months, and 42% expect no changes. The portfolio of bank retail loans continues to grow rapidly, reaching 220.3 trillion sums as of January 1, 2026, which accounts for 36% of the total portfolio. The total outstanding amount of microloans grew by 46% over the year, microcredits by 51%, and mortgages by 17%. The ratio of retail loans to GDP remains moderate at 12%, which is 0.8 percentage points below the long-term trend.
Income growth supports borrowers: nominal GDP per capita increased by $614 in 2025, reaching $3,879. The Central Bank assessed the year's results as an improvement in the state of the household sector, but classifies the credit risk of microloans as the main internal risk to financial stability in the short term.
According to the financial stability review published by the Central Bank, market housing prices in Uzbekistan decreased by 4.8% year-on-year by the end of 2025. These prices returned to the limits of the standard deviation of the calculated fundamental value.
However, when considering prices in US dollars, they showed an increase of 1.5% due to the strengthening of the sum against the US dollar. The Central Bank uses four models, including the Bayesian spatial state model and quantile regression, to estimate the fundamental value of housing.
The regulator links the return of market prices to the specified range with an increase in supply, including new construction, as well as with price correction against the backdrop of household income growth and easing mortgage conditions.
A shift in consumer behavior is observed: market participants are moving away from bets on asset appreciation and transitioning to more cautious investments focused on generating stable rental income. Over the year, rental rates increased by approximately 3%, while the ratio of housing price growth to rent growth fell below one.
The debt burden for borrowers has significantly decreased. The average debt service-to-income ratio for mortgage recipients, accounting for all their obligations, was 49%, representing a reduction of 22 percentage points over the year. Similarly, for auto loans, the average debt service-to-income ratio decreased from 60% to 37%.
The share of loans issued to borrowers with a debt service-to-income ratio of no more than 40% increased from 58% to 74% of the total payments. The regulator attributes this to the tightening of macroprudential requirements. Direct loan-to-value limits have been in effect since July 24, 2025, setting a maximum limit of 85% for mortgages. The introduction of these restrictions has improved the collateralization of mortgages and auto loans.
Overall, the average debt service-to-income ratio for all individual banking borrowers, including non-banking sector obligations, decreased from 38% to 37%. The Central Bank concluded that, against this background, the risk of bank losses on the retail portfolio has decreased.
