According to the Central Bank's financial review for 2025, macro-stress tests on solvency showed that under a specific risk scenario, the capital adequacy ratio based on total shareholder equity of Uzbekistan's banking system could decrease to 5.6% by the end of 2028, and the total regulatory capital ratio could fall to 6.8%.
The regulator noted that this scenario represents an unlikely but potentially serious risk, and that the impact of shocks on bank capital manifests with a time lag. In the base scenario, based on the current macroeconomic situation, such a decline is not expected.
The risk scenario assumes a tightening of global financial conditions amid geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased production costs. According to the Growth-at-Risk model, in such conditions, Uzbekistan's real GDP could contract by 0.7% by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, the liquidity stress test yielded more encouraging results, showing that the net inflow of funds into the banking system remains positive even within the risk scenario. Over the year, the gap between asset maturity and liabilities decreased, and banks facing the greatest potential liquidity problems possess sufficient assets to cover expected outflows.
The Central Bank assessed the scale of contagion risk—the spread of problems from one bank to the entire system through interbank obligations—as low. Furthermore, the regulator considers the impact of a possible drop in housing prices on mortgage loan losses to be very limited.
According to the Central Bank's estimates, the system's buffer at the beginning of 2026 is adequate. All banks comply with Basel III requirements, including buffers, and the total regulatory capital ratio exceeds 13%. This is above the minimum requirements, which include a capital conservation buffer of 2.5%, a countercyclical buffer of 1.5%, and an additional requirement of 1% for systemically important banks.
