The cryptocurrency industry is beginning to prepare for the threat posed by quantum computing, as recent advancements in this technology heighten concerns that it could soon crack the cryptography securing transactions and digital wallets.
The cryptocurrency industry is beginning to prepare for the threat posed by quantum computing, as recent advancements in this technology heighten concerns that it could soon crack the cryptography securing transactions and digital wallets.
Quantum computers are capable of solving complex mathematical problems significantly faster than modern high-performance computers and can be used to decrypt traditional methods of digital information encryption. This poses serious challenges to the global cryptocurrency market, valued at two trillion dollars, which relies on blockchains secured by outdated cryptography and has a history of major hacks.
Although the technology remains largely experimental, concern in the crypto industry has grown following a Google study in March. This research project, conducted by one of the tech giants, showed that quantum computers could break this cryptography sooner than previously thought, according to analysts and company executives. Google stated that quantum computers capable of breaking encryption might appear by 2029, whereas previously it was expected not before a decade from now.
Recent work by Citigroup and other organizations has also concluded that quantum computing, alongside breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, has shortened the timeframe during which cryptocurrencies will become widely vulnerable to hackers.
Recognizing the risks this technology poses to both private and public sectors, US President Donald Trump issued executive orders last month aimed at strengthening US quantum capabilities.
Some blockchain developers and crypto companies are already developing plans to upgrade their networks using quantum-resistant cryptography. This process may take years and will require massive changes to the infrastructure underpinning digital assets.
Chris Tham, head of Quantum Innovations at BTQ Technologies, which specializes in quantum security, stated that this is 'the most direct and existential threat to cryptocurrencies and crypto networks.'
Most blockchains use elliptic curve cryptography, developed decades ago, to create public and private keys, as well as digital signatures necessary to verify ownership of crypto assets and authorize transactions. Public keys are mathematically derived from private keys, and in many blockchain networks, they become publicly available after the use or transfer of crypto assets.
While conventional computers cannot derive a private key from a public key, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is theoretically capable of doing so. This would allow attackers to forge digital signatures and authorize fraudulent operations. This risk is particularly high for public crypto networks, where transactions, unlike traditional payments, are irreversible.
Utkarsh Ahuja, managing partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, a crypto investor, noted: 'Cryptocurrencies are especially vulnerable because blockchains are transparent and immutable.'
Bitcoin, being the largest cryptocurrency, is considered particularly susceptible to risk because its 17-year transaction history has led to the accumulation of a large number of visible public keys. Independent researcher Ahmed Raza Muhammad Umar, in an unpublished paper from June 2026, hypothesized that about 35% of circulating tokens could be subject to a quantum computer attack. Last year's studies estimated this figure up to 50%.
Cristiano Ventricelli, Vice President and Senior Digital Asset Analyst at Moody’s Ratings, warned that a single incident where a hacker steals and sells a large number of tokens could crash the price. He added that 'everyone will feel the impact.'
This risk has already prompted some to reconsider their investments in Bitcoin. Christopher Wood, Global Equity Strategy Head at Jefferies, excluded a 10% allocation to Bitcoin from his model portfolio in his January bulletin due to the long-term 'existential' threat from quantum computing.
Nevertheless, Ahuja and others believe that several more years will pass before quantum computing can crack blockchains, allowing the industry time to transition to new types of cryptography resistant to this technology, known as 'post-quantum.'
Many crypto company executives have also cautioned that too early a transition could create new vulnerabilities, as post-quantum cryptography is still actively developing. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at asset manager Grayscale, noted that post-quantum digital signatures are typically much larger than traditional ones, increasing data storage and bandwidth requirements. This could raise costs and degrade user experience, especially on fixed-block-size blockchains like Bitcoin, although he expressed confidence that blockchains will ultimately solve these issues.
He added that 'we face an engineering challenge, but engineering solutions already exist.' This task may take many years to overcome. One senior cybersecurity executive at a major crypto company reported that his company expects to become fully quantum-resistant within two years. He and others described the potential work as something akin to a Y2K style update, when over $300 billion was spent globally to fix the 'millennium bug.'
The problem is particularly complex for decentralized blockchains because they are governed by a community that may not reach a consensus on future actions, as noted by Tham from BTQ Technologies. According to surveyed individuals, none of the top 20 blockchains have implemented a post-quantum signature algorithm. In the case of Bitcoin, leaders reported that developers and market participants disagree on what solution to adopt and when to transition.
The Ethereum Foundation, which supports the blockchain underlying Ether—the second-largest cryptocurrency—is targeting 2029 for full protection against quantum computing. Christopher Smith, CEO of Quantus, a blockchain that already uses post-quantum cryptography, stated: 'The disaster scenario is that it happens much sooner than we think.'
Algorand Foundation, which supports the Algorand blockchain whose native token has a market capitalization of about $780 million, is one of the early adopters. As Bruno Martins, CTO of Algorand Foundation, reported last month, a post-quantum transition roadmap was published, and support for post-quantum accounts is planned for later this year. Martins added: 'It was right to start doing something now because having a plan is responsible.'