According to data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association, agricultural machinery sales showed a slight decline in June.
Tractor and Combine Sales Dynamics
Willie Human, chairman of the South African Agricultural Machinery Association, reported that 623 tractors were sold in June, which is 2% less than the 636 units sold in June last year. At the beginning of the year, tractor sales decreased by approximately 1% compared to last year. As for combine harvesters, 11 units were sold in June, which is two fewer than the 13 units sold in June of the previous year. Currently, combine harvester sales have dropped by almost 4% compared to last year.
Reasons for Market Slowdown
Human noted that significant uncertainty persists in the agricultural machinery market. Corn harvesting has not yet been completed and may extend until September. Due to the late start of the season, some farmers are awaiting harvest results and the quality of the harvested corn. Furthermore, farmers' concerns are driven by high resource costs and the threat of the approaching El Niño phenomenon. Nevertheless, favorable conditions for the start of the summer planting season are being created by lower oil prices and the current high soil moisture levels.
Forecasts and Economic Analysis
Human added that current tractor sales forecasts for the 2026 calendar year remain similar or only slightly lower than in 2025. Vandile Sichlobo, chief economist at the Agbiz South African Agricultural Business Chamber, explained the drop in tractor and combine sales in June as a combination of factors, including the delay in the summer harvest for the 2025-26 season. He also pointed to the uncertainty of the weather forecast for the 2026-27 season and relatively high resource costs caused by the war in the Middle East. Sichlobo mentioned that there is a cost relief due to the likely conclusion of a peace agreement between Iran and the US, but overall expenses are still higher than the previous year.
Review of Previous Periods
Data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association shows that in June 2026, tractor sales fell by 2% year-on-year, reaching 623 units, while combine harvester sales decreased by 15%, reaching 11 units. Sichlobo considers this decline expected and a sign of a shift in sales direction in the coming months. He recalled that South Africa experienced a good period with strong tractor sales for most of 2025 and early 2026. These high sales were driven by an abundant harvest in the 2024-25 production season, especially grains and oilseeds, which supported farmers' incomes. The horticulture industry also performed well, contributing to increased farmer incomes, aided by relatively low interest rates.
Harvest Prospects and Risks
In the current 2025-26 production season, South Africa is also expecting an abundant harvest, with a forecast of a record summer grain and oilseed yield of 21.49 million tonnes, which is 5% more than last year. This volume includes maize, sunflower seeds, soy, peanuts, sorghum, and dry beans. However, Sichlobo warned that this future abundance may not support sales. The El Niño forecast for the upcoming season is likely to put additional pressure on the agricultural sector, as farmers will face lower commodity prices, especially for grains, oilseeds, and sugar cane, while resource costs remain somewhat higher than in recent seasons.
