After more than four years since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is feeling the intense impacts of the conflict. The government has decided to temporarily suspend diesel exports and recognize the need to import petroleum derivatives to meet domestic consumption, highlighting how the war has compromised the country's energy infrastructure, a major global producer and exporter of oil.
Since 2024, Kyiv has intensified attacks using long-range drones against refineries, distribution terminals, and fuel storage bases located on Russian territory. Analyses by international media outlets indicate that this tactic aims to harm one of the Kremlin's main sources of revenue and, simultaneously, hinder the supply of fuel to the Russian armed forces. Despite Moscow's reinforcement of defense systems, some of these facilities have begun operating at reduced capacity following successive bombardments.
The consequences of these attacks have extended beyond the industrial sphere. The reduction in refining capacity has resulted in a decrease in the supply of diesel and gasoline to the national market, forcing the Russian government to implement emergency measures. Among these actions are the suspension of diesel exports, the postponement of scheduled maintenance at refineries, and the possibility of acquiring fuel from neighboring nations to serve more affected areas. This measure constitutes an atypical change for a country whose geopolitical projection has always been tied to its energy export capacity.
Experts consulted by international press point out that the Ukrainian attacks signal a significant shift in the military dynamic. Unable to confront Russia in terms of conventional force, Kyiv has directed its efforts against strategic assets that increase the economic costs of the conflict for Moscow. In addition to reducing export revenues, the bombings impose on the Russian government the obligation to allocate resources for repairs, strengthening air defense, and maintaining domestic supply.
The restriction on exports may also generate international repercussions. Countries that increased their purchases of Russian diesel after Western sanctions, such as Brazil and Turkey, may face lower availability of the fuel and greater pressure on international prices. It is relevant to note that Brazil depends on Russia, importing about 70% of the diesel it consumes, with 30% of the total consumed being imported.
