Mining companies have submitted hundreds of applications for permits in Colombia and Argentina in response to the sharp rise in global demand for copper. Experts predict a shortage of this metal by 2035, partly due to the energy transition process, but believe that Latin America has good opportunities to benefit from this situation.
A study conducted by Dialogue Earth in collaboration with Climate Tracker, Mongabay, and El Espectador showed that there were 201 mining licenses active in Colombia, with another 746 applications under review. Meanwhile, 76 active copper mining licenses were registered in Argentina. The UN Conference on Trade and Development defines the energy transition as a process that is 'fundamentally mineral-intensive.' Metals like copper are critical for the development of areas such as wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, and power transmission grids.
According to data from the International Energy Agency, the world may face a copper deficit of approximately 30% by 2035, linked to 'limited resource discoveries and long implementation times' for new projects. Ana Carolina González, Director for Latin America at the Natural Resources Governance Institute, notes that this puts Latin America in an 'interesting' position. Argentina and Colombia are actively promoting dozens of projects to accelerate extraction.
José Cabello, a geologist with over fifty years of experience in Latin American mining, believes that geologists are increasingly viewing Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Brazil as jurisdictions with high potential for copper mining. Although these countries may not surpass regional giants like Chile and Peru, they are becoming increasingly significant destinations for the global search for copper and future supply growth.
The governments of both countries promote their mining sectors as environmentally and socially responsible. In early July, the head of Argentina's newly appointed cabinet, Diego Santilli, emphasized the need for 'responsible mining'; this concept is also supported at the provincial level. For its part, outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro supports mining projects that, according to his government, are conducted after consultation with local communities and with the acquisition of environmental certificates.
However, while the region seeks to capitalize on the demand for copper, miners risk coming into conflict with local communities. Satellite image analysis presented in the article shows that many proposed copper mining sites are located in ecologically significant areas or on communal lands.
In Colombia, the Directorate of Mining and Energy Planning (UPME) highlights the country's geological potential due to the diversity of geological formations present in various types of deposits and regions. Nevertheless, only one copper mine is currently operational. Another recently obtained the necessary environmental permits to begin construction.
Regarding Argentina, Cabello points out that the discovery of deposits such as Taca Taca and Josemaría demonstrates the country's significant production potential. These large-scale prospective areas could compete with Chuquicamata in northern Chile, the world's largest copper deposit. Currently, the only operating copper mine in Argentina—Martín Bronce in the north—provides only a minor volume of production. According to the Ministry of Mining, copper accounts for only 1.7% of Argentina's total mineral exports.
Argentina's scheme to stimulate large investments (Rigi) aims to bridge this gap by offering tax incentives to developers of major projects. According to a coalition of institutions dealing with legal, academic, and political issues, twenty out of 36 applications to Rigi in the last two years were related to mining, five of which were for copper mining projects, including Los Azules and the Vicuña project, which is one of the largest investments in Argentina's mining sector recently.
Ana Carolina González notes that copper mining has been ongoing globally for many years, and existing reserves are depleting. Furthermore, the quality of copper ore is declining: since 1991, it has worsened by 40% according to Australian giant BHP. She explains that achieving previous quality requires more land over a larger area.
This expansion of mining boundaries places additional pressure on environmentally sensitive areas. The Global Atlas of Environmental Justice, a database of global environmental conflicts, shows that nearly a third of registered conflicts in South America are related to mining initiatives.
In Colombia, data from the National Mining Agency (ANM) indicates that 37% of potential copper mining sites overlap with 'secondary forest reserves,' a category that restricts mining activities. 'Excluded zones,' where mining is prohibited, account for 22%. However, our analysis shows that at least 118 active copper mining licenses in the country intersect with ecologically significant territories, such as forest reserves and protected areas. Of these, 24 are located in areas currently considered 'excluded.'
At least three active licenses are located in areas recognized and designated as páramos. These ecosystems are protected because they regulate hydrological cycles that provide water to the population. According to the Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MinAmbiente), páramo areas are crucial for the livelihoods of over 70% of Colombians. Although their importance was legally recognized back in 1993, MinAmbiente only received the mandate to designate them as unsuitable for such activities in 2011.
As for Argentina, cross-referencing data reveals that at least 21 mining projects operate in five territories protected by international, national, and provincial regulations. One of the areas with the highest number of projects is the San Guillermo reserve in the western province of San Juan, which was recognized as a UNESCO biosphere reserve. Five mining projects are currently operating in this national park. Two of them, the Josemaría and Filo del Sol deposits, are part of the Vicuña project. They are operated by Lundin Mining and BHP, respectively.
There are also 10 projects that intersect with glacial formations or are located near them in areas defined by the Argentine Institute of Nivology, Glaciology, and Environmental Sciences (Ianigla) as vital for glacial ecosystems. Most of these are in the province of San Juan, where 16 copper mining operations are located, including Los Azules, which is one of the most advanced projects. Leandro Gómez, who coordinates the Investment and Rights Program at the Argentine Environmental and Natural Resources Fund (Farn), points to the Argentine Glacier Law, which prevented construction near glaciers but was weakened to facilitate mining.
Until mid-May, only one copper mine, El Roble, was operational in Colombia—located in the municipality of El Carmen de Atrato, in Ocho, the northwestern region known for its biodiversity. According to the National Mining Agency, El Roble provides 85% of the country's copper production, with the remaining 15% coming from gold mining byproducts.
In mid-May, the National Environmental Licensing Authority (ANLA) issued a permit for the El Alacrán project, located in Puerto Libertador in the northern Córdoba region. This was the final permit needed to begin construction. According to the project's feasibility study, the site contains 'probable' mineral reserves of 98 million tons, including copper, gold, and silver. The company implementing the project, CMH Colombia, states that the mine will process 17,000–20,000 tons of ore per day—about 20 times the capacity of Colombia's sole operating copper mine, El Roble.
Hundreds of other projects exist across Colombia at various stages. Analysis of public records shows that there are at least 210 active medium and large-scale mining licenses related to copper nationwide. Most of these are concentrated in the departments of Antioquia (77), Ocho (51), Bolívar (22), La Guajira (14), and Córdoba (11).
Of these 210, according to the mining registry, one is in the preliminary technical assessment stage, 89 are in the exploration stage, 17 are in the construction and commissioning stage, and 103 are in production. Interest in new copper mining projects in Colombia has significantly increased over the last decade. According to our analysis, almost 332 applications were submitted only in 2021 and 2022. Currently, the mining authority is evaluating at least 746 active applications concerning copper to some degree: 673 medium and 73 large. Copper is the main target for 80 projects.
In Argentina, copper exploration is concentrated around the Andes—where there are at least 77 projects. Of these, 68 are in the exploration or preliminary exploration stage, eight have passed the exploration stage, and one is in production. Most projects are located in the provinces of Salta (46) and San Juan (16). The rest are in La Rioja (6), Catamarca (4), Mendoza (2), Neuquén (1), and Río Negro (1).
The Constitution of Colombia does not prohibit mining on indigenous or communal lands, but it requires consultation with local communities. Our analysis revealed that at least 94 mining licenses related to copper overlap with indigenous territories (64), Afro-descendant community councils (54), and two peasant reserve areas (zonas de reserva campesina). Concessions covering more than 69,000 hectares were granted within 30 indigenous reserves. Most of these (77%) are located on Embera people's lands. There are at least 18 concessions on the territories of Afro-descendant community councils. Most licenses in these territories (26 out of 54) were filed by Exploraciones Chocó Colombia.
In Argentina, the provinces where copper mining projects are located are home to more than 110 communities of various indigenous peoples. The country recognized indigenous lands in 1994, but they are still not clearly defined. Of the 76 mining projects listed by the Argentine Secretariat of Mining, 47 are within 50 km of indigenous territories; 17 are within 15 km, and three—all in the province of Salta—are within 4 km. According to official data, communities of the Chalchaki and Tastileas peoples live in these areas. The scope of this study did not include determining whether indigenous communities were properly consulted in each of these cases, but the importance of indigenous peoples' work in protecting vital habitats, as well as fighting against mining and development, which these communities are forced to fight in both Argentina and Colombia, is widely acknowledged.
China, the United States, and the European Union seek to strengthen their presence and form new alliances in mineral-rich Latin America. Chinese companies have invested in numerous projects, and between 2013 and 2024, Chinese President Xi visited Latin America six times. China's latest document on Latin America and the Caribbean indicates a desire to 'strengthen cooperation' on clean energy issues and 'improve green development and mineral resource utilization.' David Castrilón-Carrigan notes that China's interest is not new, and if the blocs fail to agree on maintaining minimum standards, what has been called a 'race to the bottom' may begin.
