Heightened tensions in the Middle East have increased the significance of geopolitical factors for the global metals market. Rising oil prices, caused by new US attacks on Iran and reduced activity in the Strait of Hormuz, have led to increased inflation expectations and strengthened forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a tight monetary policy.
According to Alpari expert Anna Bodrova, amid these events, gold is trading around $4100 per troy ounce, after previously falling by more than 1% the previous day. Silver remains below the $60 per ounce mark, having lost over 3% in the last trading session.
Previously, weak US labor market data supported precious metal prices as it lowered expectations of interest rate hikes. However, the new conflict escalation has changed market sentiment. Bodrova noted that the US withdrawal of Iran's right to export oil added further pressure, intensifying concerns about potential energy supply disruptions and accelerating inflation.
Platinum is trading below $1650 per ounce, remaining close to the lowest levels since late 2025. Nevertheless, the analyst believes that the potential for further decline is limited due to structural shortages in the global market, restricted production in South Africa, dwindling reserves, and stable demand from the automotive industry.
In the industrial segment, dynamics remain mixed. Copper is holding above $6.15 per pound. The market is supported by BHP's decision to increase production at one of its largest mines in Chile, reflecting expectations of sustained global demand linked to the development of energy infrastructure, electrification, and artificial intelligence technologies.
Aluminum is showing a recovery, with its price rising to approximately $3120 per ton after hitting a four-month low. In Bodrova's opinion, this growth is driven by reduced inventory levels on the London Metal Exchange, forecasts of supply shortages, and the weakening dollar following the release of US labor market statistics.
According to the Alpari analyst, the future trajectory of the metals market will largely depend on the development of the geopolitical situation and expectations regarding further decisions by the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, industrial metals continue to be supported by long-term demand from the energy, infrastructure, and high-tech sectors, as well as current supply constraints.
