Despite attention to the increasing US debt burden, several other wealthy countries face the risk of falling into a debt trap, which threatens a serious economic crisis. France is one such country about which experts have expressed serious concern.
Risks of rising public debt in France
The constant increase in borrowing costs in France is causing alarm among investors and economists. The country's public debt, which stands at 3.5 trillion euros, could increase even further. Experts note that due to political instability ahead of next year's presidential elections and the likely slowdown in fiscal reforms, France's public debt is expected to continue growing.
'Snowball' effect and GDP forecasts
There is a risk of the so-called 'Snowball Effect' (France Snowball Effect), where the average interest rate on government bonds exceeds the pace of economic growth. This leads to an increase in debt relative to the size of the economy if the government does not maintain a primary budget surplus. According to a Reuters report, economists forecast an accelerated growth in the debt burden in France until the 2027 elections.
Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the OECD, stated in Beijing that if measures are not taken, France's public debt could reach 203% of its GDP by 2050. Furthermore, by 2029, interest payments could approach 100 billion euros. Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at the credit rating agency Moody's, noted that the increase in interest payments relative to public debt will be most significant for France. Morgan Stanley also advised its clients to reduce investments in French debt due to financial concerns.
Current status and debt servicing costs
According to official data, in the first quarter, France's public debt exceeded 3.5 trillion euros ($4.0 trillion), representing 117.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP). This figure is close to the level recorded during the Covid-19 crisis. The report emphasizes that France is the only country in the Eurozone that has failed to reduce its debt burden after the peak reached during the coronavirus pandemic.
Last year, in 2025, debt servicing payments amounted to 66 billion euros, becoming the country's largest expenditure item, possibly even exceeding spending on education and defense. The Court of Accounts warned that this amount could rise to 100 billion euros by 2029. Court of Accounts specialist Karin Cambi believes that while strong economic growth or a primary budget surplus could change the situation theoretically, this is unlikely in the near future. Without action, the country risks being under pressure from debt payments for many years.
Politicization of the debt issue
The issue of growing debt has become an important political topic ahead of the presidential elections in France next year. Major centrist candidates, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, have made this issue central to their election campaigns. Deputy Kevin Moïquet warned that the growing debt threat is a serious signal, and the longer it waits, the more serious the consequences will become.