India rejects Pakistan's water scarcity claims, citing IWT data

Despite India suspending the treaty earlier this year, it emphasized that Pakistan's public narrative ignores hydrological realities. According to a research institute, Pakistan annually receives an average of 140 million acre-feet (MAF) in the Indus basin from the western rivers. This figure exceeds the 135 MAF estimated at the time of signing the treaty. Conversely, data shows that the outflow in the eastern rivers allocated to India has decreased by approximately 15% compared to the 33 MAF estimated in 1960.

Water Distribution and Usage

Officials noted that while receiving an average of 140 MAF, Pakistan uses only about 104 MAF for irrigation. The remaining volume is lost due to system inefficiency or is not used before reaching the sea. One Indian water official stated that 'the volume received by Pakistan at any given time depends on rainfall in the catchment area, snowmelt, and the use permitted to India according to the treaty.' He added that 'blaming India for all shortages ignores these factors and the scale of water Pakistan actually receives.'

Analysis and Criticism

Indian analysts believe that publications in Pakistani newspapers, magazines, and online forums, made by the 'so-called elite or scientists,' constitute 'general rhetoric to shape public opinion' and allow avoidance of discussing internal problems. Critics in New Delhi question whether the focus on India is a 'deliberate agenda for playing the victim and diverting attention' from Pakistan's own poor management of water resources. Among the mentioned problems are outdated canal infrastructure, lack of reservoirs, low farm efficiency, and inter-provincial disputes over distribution.

International Context and Reports

India announced the suspension of the IWT in April 2026 following the deterioration of bilateral relations. The treaty has no exit clause and has survived three wars and numerous crises. The World Bank acts as a mediator and is a signatory to the treaty. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns in international forums that any Indian projects on the western rivers could reduce downstream flow. India insists that all its projects comply with the treaty limits, and data does not support claims of water retention by India.

According to a World Bank Group report, 'Pakistan – Getting More From Water,' updated as of September 2018, Pakistan is relatively well-off in terms of water resources: only 16 countries have a larger total water supply. However, being the sixth most populous country in the world, its per capita share is low, and the decline is mainly due to population growth. On average, Pakistan still receives as much or slightly more water from the Indus as was estimated at the time the Treaty was concluded.

Management Issues and Potential

The World Bank notes that 32 countries have less water per capita than Pakistan, yet their average GDP per capita is ten times higher. The report concludes that Pakistan's water security 'is undermined by poor water resource management,' pointing to weak planning, poor data governance, widespread pollution, excessive groundwater exploitation, and unreliable flood and drought forecasting. Since over 90% of water goes to agriculture, reducing losses in the system and increasing productivity is critical. Storage is also a gap: about 80% of annual runoff occurs during the four monsoon seasons, but without adequate reservoirs, reliable Rabi season irrigation remains unattainable.

A separate analysis by Asad Sarwar Qureshi for the International Mountain Society in August 2011 showed that the Indus delivers an average of 175 billion cubic meters (BCM), or about 142 MAF annually to Pakistan, which is more than the estimates of the treaty era. Of this volume, 128 BCM is directed to irrigation, 12 BCM is lost due to system inefficiency, and 35 BCM is unused and flows into the sea. Thus, only about 73% of available water is productively used. In contrast, India has actively invested in programs such as 'More Crop Per Drop,' watershed development, micro-irrigation, and managed territory development over the last decade. Only central schemes exceeded 1.25 lakh crore rupees, with additional government spending aimed at improving agricultural water use productivity. These reports collectively assert that Pakistan's path to water security depends less on external disputes and more on internal reform: reducing losses, expanding storage, and modernizing irrigation.