July 6, 22:00

Experts Discuss the Impact of Expected El Niño on South African Agriculture

As the planting season approaches in South Africa, the El Niño phenomenon is anticipated, and agricultural specialists are divided on the consequences of this event for the sector.

Expert Opinions on the Impact

Vandile Sichlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Council of South Africa (Agbiz), noted that one of the main topics of discussion last week was the likely impact of the expected El Niño on South African agriculture and consumer food price inflation in 2027.

Sichlobo added that concerns are understandable because recent weather forecasts indicate the approach of a strong El Niño. Its arrival will coincide with the 2026-27 South African summer harvest season, which begins in mid-October.

Advantages of Previous Seasons

Sichlobo recalled that South Africa benefited from the prolonged La Niña phenomenon, which supported the agricultural sector over the past few years. He emphasized that rainfall periods were significantly longer than usual. For example, in the 2024-25 season, summer rains continued until April 2025, exceeding the typical end date of summer rains in March.

Similarly, in the 2025-26 season, rain fell until May 2026, much longer than standard precipitation cycles ending in March. Usually, such long periods of rainfall caused concern about crop quality, but no serious quality issues were observed in the areas where the 2025-26 crops were harvested. Moreover, recent Crop Assessment Committee forecasts have been revised upwards and still point to a record summer harvest in 2025-26.

Preparation for the 2026-27 Season

Sichlobo stated that the more extended rainy season contributed to improved soil moisture and groundwater levels before the start of the 2026-27 summer season. He noted that when the planting period begins in October 2026, farmers across South Africa will start work with above-average soil moisture. Consequently, there may be enough moisture for seed germination and crop development nationwide, even if El Niño conditions lead to reduced rainfall.

He specified that for field crops, about 20% of the harvest in South Africa is irrigated, while the rest depends on rainfall irrigation, which will be more dependent on available soil moisture and the timing of rainfall in the 2026-27 season, even if it is below average. Regarding livestock, pastures nationwide are in satisfactory condition thanks to the longer rainy periods in the 2025-26 season.

Factors Shaping the Future Season

Sichlobo added that there are obvious factors that may influence the upcoming season more than past droughts. He believes that predictions of rising food price inflation may overlook fundamental aspects determining the season, such as improved soil moisture and grain reserves. Although drought is not ideal and can create costs for farmers, there are clear factors that may shape the coming season more strongly than during previous droughts.

Dr. Christian Mostert from the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Pretoria advised viewing the expected El Niño as a serious agricultural risk, but not an immediate food security crisis. According to the latest international forecasts, El Niño conditions are present and are likely to intensify during the 2026/27 summer rains. Globally, the agricultural sector is on high alert as El Niño affects different regions differently: it can cause drought in some production zones and excessive rainfall or flooding in others.

Mostert added that South Africa is identified as one of the regions with a high risk of agricultural drought, where the probability of drought exceeds 50% in the territories of Namibia and Botswana and extends to South Africa and neighboring countries. In his opinion, the 2026/27 planting season in South Africa is at risk but relatively well protected. South Africa possesses useful buffers in the form of soil moisture, pasture condition, reservoir levels, and grain reserves. However, if El Niño is strong and the summer rain areas face poor subsequent rainfall, pressure could increase by 2027, and the 2027/28 season could become more problematic if current buffers are depleted and replenishing rains are insufficient.

Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, an economist from the University of South Africa (Unisa), stated that concern should only arise if El Niño lasts three consecutive years; panicking is unnecessary at this time. He noted that thanks to very good rains and a large harvest that will provide for several following years, the next planting cycle will not be affected, as the soil is currently moist and more rainfall fell this winter than before.

timesofindia.indiatimes.comJuly 4, 24:54

WMO warns of rapid El Niño development in July-September, increasing the risk of extreme weather events

According to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the rapid development of the El Niño phenomenon is being noted for the period from July to September. This circumstance increases the probability of heatwaves, droughts, and other extreme weather events in many parts of the globe, including the Indian subcontinent.

Impact of El Niño on India

India is already feeling the effects of El Niño. In June, the country recorded a significant rainfall deficit of 40%, which negatively affected the sowing of almost all Kharif (summer) crops. As a result, the total cultivated area in the country decreased by approximately 23% compared to the same period last year.

Characteristics and Forecast of the Phenomenon

El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is traditionally associated with a weak monsoon and a harsher summer in India. Such events occur every two to seven years and typically last from nine to twelve months.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that El Niño conditions have already begun and are predicted to rapidly intensify into a strong event. She emphasized that this will worsen the chances of drought and heavy rainfall, as well as increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and at sea in many regions of the world.

Agricultural Situation

Although the rainfall deficit in India is gradually decreasing due to the spread of the monsoon across the country and other meteorological factors in July-September, the condition of Kharif crops will depend on both the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the 'monsoon core zone'—the area where agriculture heavily relies on seasonal precipitation.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, on June 25, the total cultivated area was 182 lakh hectares, which is 23% less than the 236 lakh hectares the previous year. All major crops—rice, pulses, oilseeds, coarse grains (sorghum and maize), and cotton—showed a smaller planted area this year compared to last year. The largest decrease in area was observed in oilseeds, where the drop amounted to 53%.

Experts Discuss the Impact of Expected El Niño on South African Agriculture

Expert Opinions on the Impact

Advantages of Previous Seasons

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