According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the iPhone Ultra is expected to launch with restricted supply. The forecast is that production will reach between 7 and 8 million units during the second half of 2026, with most of this volume being distributed in the last three months of the year.
Production and Sales Details
The device will not have massive production like other 2026 models, and only a small fraction of this limited number should arrive in the third quarter. Kuo, who has knowledge of Apple's supply chain, points out that Apple may face a scenario similar to what was experienced almost a decade ago with the launch of the iPhone X.
Based on conversations with suppliers, Kuo estimates that between 7 and 8 million units of the iPhone Ultra will be shipped throughout the second half of 2026. A significant portion of this production should only be available in the final three months of the year. Specifically for the third quarter, the number of devices should range between 500 thousand and 1 million, which represents about 10% of the total forecast. For comparison, the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are expected to reach between 20 and 22 million units.
